foxalgoBuscador de escenarios — acciones
Elige un mercado y luego marca lo que realmente pasó hoy — un gap up, Asia barriendo el máximo de ayer, y así. Mostramos cada hallazgo preverificado que coincide, con su tasa medida frente a la base, tamaño de muestra e intervalo de confianza. Nada aquí se calcula al vuelo — cada fila ya superó la verificación de comparaciones múltiples del pipeline de investigación (corrección de Bonferroni entre sectores, controles de clúster correlacionado). Consulta metodología para ver cómo funciona. Cubre 51 símbolos (ETF, megacaps y nombres de alta beta).
Probabilidades medidas. Sin señales de operación. qué significa →
Hallazgos coincidentes
Principales 20 hallazgos por |delta| para SPY, que coinciden con el filtro de visualización.
| si / entonces | compra | grado | tasa vs. base | delta | IC 95% | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low | YES 88,3% | S | 88,3% vs. 43,0% | +45,3 pp | [82,3%, 92,5%] | 154 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high | YES 87,9% | S | 87,9% vs. 58,6% | +29,4 pp | [83,6%, 91,2%] | 282 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET | NO 83,0% | A | 17,0% vs. 36,6% | -19,6 pp | [13,1%, 21,8%] | 282 |
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high | NO 81,8% | A | 18,2% vs. 58,6% | -40,4 pp | [12,9%, 25,0%] | 154 |
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET | NO 81,8% | A | 18,2% vs. 53,2% | -35,0 pp | [12,9%, 25,0%] | 154 |
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET | NO 81,8% | A | 18,2% vs. 49,3% | -31,1 pp | [12,9%, 25,0%] | 154 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET | NO 81,6% | A | 18,4% vs. 40,0% | -21,6 pp | [14,3%, 23,4%] | 282 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low | NO 81,2% | A | 18,8% vs. 43,0% | -24,2 pp | [14,7%, 23,8%] | 282 |
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET | YES 79,9% | B | 79,9% vs. 40,0% | +39,9 pp | [72,8%, 85,4%] | 154 |
| the day opens with a gap up → price breaks yesterday's high | YES 78,5% | B | 78,5% vs. 58,6% | +19,9 pp | [73,3%, 82,9%] | 279 |
| the day opens with a gap up → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET | NO 78,1% | B | 21,9% vs. 36,6% | -14,7 pp | [17,4%, 27,1%] | 279 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET | YES 78,0% | B | 78,0% vs. 53,2% | +24,8 pp | [72,8%, 82,5%] | 282 |
| yesterday's range was wide vs. its own ATR band → today's range is wider than yesterday's range | NO 77,2% | B | 22,8% vs. 48,9% | -26,1 pp | [16,5%, 30,5%] | 136 |
Hay 385 hallazgos más para SPY por debajo del umbral de visualización (|delta| < 8pp o n < 120) y están ocultos.
Método del IC: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). Fuente: stock_conditional_tables;2026-09-30.