シナリオファインダー — 株式

市場を選び、今日実際に起きたことをチェックしてください。たとえばギャップアップ、アジア時間で昨日高値を抜いた、などです。一致する事前検証済みの結果をすべて、実測率、ベースレート、サンプル数、信頼区間付きで表示します。ここで計算はしません。各行はすでに研究パイプラインの多重比較検証を通過しています。セクター横断のBonferroni補正と、相関クラスターのチェックです。詳しくは手法を参照。 ETF、大型株、高ベータ銘柄を含む 51 銘柄を対象。

測定済みのオッズ。売買指示なし。意味 →

一致した結果

SPY の |delta| 上位 20 件。表示フィルターに一致。

条件 / 結果	買い	グレード	基準比率	差分	95% CI	n
today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low	YES 88.3%	S	88.3% 対 43.0%	+45.3 pp	[82.3%, 92.5%]	154
today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high	YES 87.9%	S	87.9% 対 58.6%	+29.4 pp	[83.6%, 91.2%]	282
today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	NO 83.0%	A	17.0% 対 36.6%	-19.6 pp	[13.1%, 21.8%]	282
today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high	NO 81.8%	A	18.2% 対 58.6%	-40.4 pp	[12.9%, 25.0%]	154
today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 81.8%	A	18.2% 対 53.2%	-35.0 pp	[12.9%, 25.0%]	154
today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	NO 81.8%	A	18.2% 対 49.3%	-31.1 pp	[12.9%, 25.0%]	154
today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 81.6%	A	18.4% 対 40.0%	-21.6 pp	[14.3%, 23.4%]	282
today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low	NO 81.2%	A	18.8% 対 43.0%	-24.2 pp	[14.7%, 23.8%]	282
today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	YES 79.9%	B	79.9% 対 40.0%	+39.9 pp	[72.8%, 85.4%]	154
the day opens with a gap up → price breaks yesterday's high	YES 78.5%	B	78.5% 対 58.6%	+19.9 pp	[73.3%, 82.9%]	279
the day opens with a gap up → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	NO 78.1%	B	21.9% 対 36.6%	-14.7 pp	[17.4%, 27.1%]	279
today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET	YES 78.0%	B	78.0% 対 53.2%	+24.8 pp	[72.8%, 82.5%]	282
yesterday's range was wide vs. its own ATR band → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	NO 77.2%	B	22.8% 対 48.9%	-26.1 pp	[16.5%, 30.5%]	136

385 件の追加結果は SPY で表示しきい値（|delta| < 8pp または n < 120）を下回るため非表示です。

CI手法: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). 出典: stock_conditional_tables;2026-09-30.