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Buscador de escenarios — cripto

Elige un mercado y luego marca lo que realmente pasó hoy — un gap up, Asia barriendo el máximo de ayer, y así. Mostramos cada hallazgo preverificado que coincide, con su tasa medida frente a la base, tamaño de muestra e intervalo de confianza. Nada aquí se calcula al vuelo — cada fila ya superó la verificación de comparaciones múltiples del pipeline de investigación (corrección de Bonferroni entre sectores, controles de clúster correlacionado). Consulta metodología para ver cómo funciona. Cubre 6 pares, agregados entre semana y fin de semana.

Probabilidades medidas. Sin señales de operación. qué significa →

Mercado

Calibración: Cripto

Cuando dijimos que un nivel tenía un X% de probabilidad de ser tocado, ¿con qué frecuencia ocurrió realmente? Fuera de muestra, intervalo por intervalo.

Todos (agrupados)BTC / ETHAlt L1

Brecha media

1,39 pp

Comprobaciones medidas

707.8M

707.782.112

Ventana fuera de muestra

—

PrevistoRealizado

Brecha media

1,70 pp

Comprobaciones medidas

117M

117.041.556

Ventana fuera de muestra

—

PrevistoRealizado

Brecha media

1,35 pp

Comprobaciones medidas

236.5M

236.491.175

Ventana fuera de muestra

—

PrevistoRealizado

Estas son touch probabilities de la propia comprobación de fiabilidad del modelo, no señales de trading evaluadas — para eso, consulta el Scorecard en vivo.

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

¿Qué pasó hoy?

Elige un valor por condición, o deja "sin seleccionar" para ignorarla.

Hallazgos coincidentes

Mostrar todo (incl. por debajo del 77%)

Selecciona al menos una condición arriba para ver los hallazgos coincidentes.

El filtrado por condición requiere JavaScript. Abajo: los 20 principales hallazgos por tamaño de efecto medido para AVAXUSDT.

si / entonces	compra	grado	tasa vs. base	delta	IC 95%	n
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97,5%	S	2,5% vs. 10,7%	-8,2 pp	[1,3%, 4,8%]	322
it is Saturday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97,3%	S	2,7% vs. 10,7%	-8,0 pp	[1,1%, 6,1%]	188
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94,0%	S	6,0% vs. 36,8%	-30,7 pp	[4,1%, 8,8%]	399
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94,0%	S	6,0% vs. 33,2%	-27,2 pp	[4,2%, 8,7%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 16:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 16:00 UTC	NO 91,0%	S	9,0% vs. 34,8%	-25,7 pp	[6,7%, 12,1%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 16:00 UTC is below its low from before 16:00 UTC	NO 90,2%	S	9,8% vs. 38,9%	-29,1 pp	[7,2%, 13,1%]	399
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 89,6%	S	10,4% vs. 33,2%	-22,8 pp	[7,4%, 14,4%]	298
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 87,6%	S	12,4% vs. 39,9%	-27,4 pp	[9,1%, 16,6%]	298
the volatility regime is low (ATR well below its 90-day median) → today's range is wider than its trailing 20-day median range	NO 86,3%	S	13,7% vs. 32,5%	-18,8 pp	[10,9%, 17,1%]	482
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 86,0%	A	14,0% vs. 33,2%	-19,2 pp	[9,7%, 19,9%]	178
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 85,8%	A	14,2% vs. 36,8%	-22,5 pp	[10,8%, 18,5%]	316
price at 08:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 08:00 UTC is below its low from before 08:00 UTC	YES 83,1%	A	83,1% vs. 62,6%	+20,6 pp	[77,7%, 87,4%]	225
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 82,6%	A	17,4% vs. 42,8%	-25,4 pp	[13,6%, 22,0%]	316
today's range is the narrowest of the last 7 trading days (NR7) → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	YES 81,6%	A	81,6% vs. 48,5%	+33,2 pp	[75,8%, 86,3%]	207
it is Monday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 81,0%	B	19,0% vs. 10,7%	+8,4 pp	[14,1%, 25,2%]	189
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	NO 80,4%	B	19,6% vs. 48,5%	-28,9 pp	[15,6%, 24,2%]	322
the market closed down yesterday → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,8%	B	20,2% vs. 33,2%	-13,0 pp	[17,3%, 23,4%]	674
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,6%	B	20,4% vs. 36,8%	-16,3 pp	[15,2%, 26,9%]	181
it is Saturday → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,3%	B	20,7% vs. 36,8%	-16,0 pp	[15,6%, 27,1%]	188
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 08:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 08:00 UTC	YES 79,1%	B	79,1% vs. 60,7%	+18,4 pp	[74,3%, 83,2%]	316

Hay 520 hallazgos más para AVAXUSDT por debajo del umbral de visualización (|delta| < 8pp o n < 120) y están ocultos.

Método del IC: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). Fuente: crypto_conditional_tables;daypart=pooled;2026-09-30.