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Scenario finder — crypto

Pick a market, then check off what actually happened today — a gap up, Asia sweeping yesterday's high, and so on. We show every pre-verified finding that matches, with its measured rate against the base rate, sample size, and confidence interval. Nothing here is computed on the fly — every row already survived the research pipeline's multiple-comparisons verification (Bonferroni correction across sectors, correlated-cluster checks). See methodology for how that works. Covers 6 pairs, pooled across weekday and weekend.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Market

Calibration: Crypto

When we said a level had an X% chance of being touched, how often did it actually happen? Out-of-sample, bucket by bucket.

All (pooled)BTC / ETHAlt L1

Mean gap

1.39 pp

Checks measured

707.8M

707,782,112

Out-of-sample window

—

PredictedRealized

Mean gap

1.70 pp

Checks measured

117M

117,041,556

Out-of-sample window

—

PredictedRealized

Mean gap

1.35 pp

Checks measured

236.5M

236,491,175

Out-of-sample window

—

PredictedRealized

These are touch probabilities from the model's own reliability check, not graded trade calls — for those, see the live Scorecard.

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

What happened today?

Pick one value per condition — or leave it at "not selected" to ignore it.

Matching findings

Show all (incl. under 77%)

Select at least one condition above to see matching findings.

Filtering by condition needs JavaScript. Below: the top 20 findings by measured effect size for AVAXUSDT.

if / then	call	grade	rate vs. base	delta	95% CI	n
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97.5%	S	2.5% vs. 10.7%	-8.2 pp	[1.3%, 4.8%]	322
it is Saturday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97.3%	S	2.7% vs. 10.7%	-8.0 pp	[1.1%, 6.1%]	188
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94.0%	S	6.0% vs. 36.8%	-30.7 pp	[4.1%, 8.8%]	399
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94.0%	S	6.0% vs. 33.2%	-27.2 pp	[4.2%, 8.7%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 16:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 16:00 UTC	NO 91.0%	S	9.0% vs. 34.8%	-25.7 pp	[6.7%, 12.1%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 16:00 UTC is below its low from before 16:00 UTC	NO 90.2%	S	9.8% vs. 38.9%	-29.1 pp	[7.2%, 13.1%]	399
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 89.6%	S	10.4% vs. 33.2%	-22.8 pp	[7.4%, 14.4%]	298
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 87.6%	S	12.4% vs. 39.9%	-27.4 pp	[9.1%, 16.6%]	298
the volatility regime is low (ATR well below its 90-day median) → today's range is wider than its trailing 20-day median range	NO 86.3%	S	13.7% vs. 32.5%	-18.8 pp	[10.9%, 17.1%]	482
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 86.0%	A	14.0% vs. 33.2%	-19.2 pp	[9.7%, 19.9%]	178
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 85.8%	A	14.2% vs. 36.8%	-22.5 pp	[10.8%, 18.5%]	316
price at 08:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 08:00 UTC is below its low from before 08:00 UTC	YES 83.1%	A	83.1% vs. 62.6%	+20.6 pp	[77.7%, 87.4%]	225
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 82.6%	A	17.4% vs. 42.8%	-25.4 pp	[13.6%, 22.0%]	316
today's range is the narrowest of the last 7 trading days (NR7) → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	YES 81.6%	A	81.6% vs. 48.5%	+33.2 pp	[75.8%, 86.3%]	207
it is Monday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 81.0%	B	19.0% vs. 10.7%	+8.4 pp	[14.1%, 25.2%]	189
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	NO 80.4%	B	19.6% vs. 48.5%	-28.9 pp	[15.6%, 24.2%]	322
the market closed down yesterday → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.8%	B	20.2% vs. 33.2%	-13.0 pp	[17.3%, 23.4%]	674
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.6%	B	20.4% vs. 36.8%	-16.3 pp	[15.2%, 26.9%]	181
it is Saturday → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.3%	B	20.7% vs. 36.8%	-16.0 pp	[15.6%, 27.1%]	188
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 08:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 08:00 UTC	YES 79.1%	B	79.1% vs. 60.7%	+18.4 pp	[74.3%, 83.2%]	316

520 more findings for AVAXUSDT are below the display threshold (|delta| < 8pp or n < 120) and are hidden.

CI method: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). Source: crypto_conditional_tables;daypart=pooled;2026-09-30.