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シナリオファインダー — crypto

市場を選び、今日実際に起きたことをチェックしてください。たとえばギャップアップ、アジア時間で昨日高値を抜いた、などです。一致する事前検証済みの結果をすべて、実測率、ベースレート、サンプル数、信頼区間付きで表示します。ここで計算はしません。各行はすでに研究パイプラインの多重比較検証を通過しています。セクター横断のBonferroni補正と、相関クラスターのチェックです。詳しくは手法を参照。平日と週末を通算した 6 ペアを対象。

測定済みのオッズ。売買指示なし。意味 →

市場

キャリブレーション：暗号資産

ある水準がタッチされる確率をX%としたとき、実際にはどの程度の頻度で起きたか。標本外で、バケットごとに集計。

全体（統合）BTC / ETHその他のL1

平均乖離

1.39 pp

測定チェック数

707.8M

707,782,112

標本外ウィンドウ

—

予測値実現値

平均乖離

1.70 pp

測定チェック数

117M

117,041,556

標本外ウィンドウ

—

予測値実現値

平均乖離

1.35 pp

測定チェック数

236.5M

236,491,175

標本外ウィンドウ

—

予測値実現値

これはモデル自身の信頼性チェックによるtouch probabilityであり、採点済みのトレードコールではありません。後者はライブのScorecardを参照してください。

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

今日は何が起きたか

各条件は1つずつ選ぶ。無視するなら「未選択」のままにする。

一致した結果

全件表示 (77%未満を含む)

上の条件を1つ以上選ぶと、一致する結果が表示される。

条件での絞り込みには JavaScript が必要です。下に、AVAXUSDT の測定効果量が大きい順の上位 20 件を表示します。

条件 / 結果	買い	グレード	基準比率	差分	95% CI	n
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97.5%	S	2.5% 対 10.7%	-8.2 pp	[1.3%, 4.8%]	322
it is Saturday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97.3%	S	2.7% 対 10.7%	-8.0 pp	[1.1%, 6.1%]	188
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94.0%	S	6.0% 対 36.8%	-30.7 pp	[4.1%, 8.8%]	399
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94.0%	S	6.0% 対 33.2%	-27.2 pp	[4.2%, 8.7%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 16:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 16:00 UTC	NO 91.0%	S	9.0% 対 34.8%	-25.7 pp	[6.7%, 12.1%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 16:00 UTC is below its low from before 16:00 UTC	NO 90.2%	S	9.8% 対 38.9%	-29.1 pp	[7.2%, 13.1%]	399
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 89.6%	S	10.4% 対 33.2%	-22.8 pp	[7.4%, 14.4%]	298
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 87.6%	S	12.4% 対 39.9%	-27.4 pp	[9.1%, 16.6%]	298
the volatility regime is low (ATR well below its 90-day median) → today's range is wider than its trailing 20-day median range	NO 86.3%	S	13.7% 対 32.5%	-18.8 pp	[10.9%, 17.1%]	482
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 86.0%	A	14.0% 対 33.2%	-19.2 pp	[9.7%, 19.9%]	178
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 85.8%	A	14.2% 対 36.8%	-22.5 pp	[10.8%, 18.5%]	316
price at 08:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 08:00 UTC is below its low from before 08:00 UTC	YES 83.1%	A	83.1% 対 62.6%	+20.6 pp	[77.7%, 87.4%]	225
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 82.6%	A	17.4% 対 42.8%	-25.4 pp	[13.6%, 22.0%]	316
today's range is the narrowest of the last 7 trading days (NR7) → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	YES 81.6%	A	81.6% 対 48.5%	+33.2 pp	[75.8%, 86.3%]	207
it is Monday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 81.0%	B	19.0% 対 10.7%	+8.4 pp	[14.1%, 25.2%]	189
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	NO 80.4%	B	19.6% 対 48.5%	-28.9 pp	[15.6%, 24.2%]	322
the market closed down yesterday → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.8%	B	20.2% 対 33.2%	-13.0 pp	[17.3%, 23.4%]	674
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.6%	B	20.4% 対 36.8%	-16.3 pp	[15.2%, 26.9%]	181
it is Saturday → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.3%	B	20.7% 対 36.8%	-16.0 pp	[15.6%, 27.1%]	188
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 08:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 08:00 UTC	YES 79.1%	B	79.1% 対 60.7%	+18.4 pp	[74.3%, 83.2%]	316

520 件の追加結果は AVAXUSDT で表示しきい値（|delta| < 8pp または n < 120）を下回るため非表示です。

CI手法: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). 出典: crypto_conditional_tables;daypart=pooled;2026-09-30.