JETZT LIVE

Live-Calls werden geladen…

Live-Calls werden geladen…Board öffnen →

Szenario-Finder — Krypto

Wähle einen Markt und hake dann ab, was heute tatsächlich passiert ist - ein Gap-Up, Asien nimmt das gestrige Hoch heraus, und so weiter. Wir zeigen jeden vorab verifizierten Treffer, der passt, mit gemessener Rate gegenüber der Basisrate, Stichprobengröße und Konfidenzintervall. Hier wird nichts live berechnet - jede Zeile hat die Mehrfachvergleichsprüfung der Research-Pipeline bereits bestanden (Bonferroni-Korrektur über Sektoren, Clusterchecks bei korrelierten Märkten). Siehe Methodik dafür. Umfasst 6 Paare, gepoolt über Werktage und Wochenende.

Gemessene Odds. Keine Trade-Calls. was das bedeutet →

Markt

Kalibrierung: Krypto

Wenn wir sagten, dass ein Level mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von X% berührt wird, wie oft geschah das tatsächlich? Out-of-sample, Bucket für Bucket.

Alle (gepoolt)BTC / ETHAlt L1

Mittlere Abweichung

1,39 pp

Gemessene Checks

707.8M

707.782.112

Out-of-sample-Fenster

—

VorhergesagtRealisiert

Mittlere Abweichung

1,70 pp

Gemessene Checks

117M

117.041.556

Out-of-sample-Fenster

—

VorhergesagtRealisiert

Mittlere Abweichung

1,35 pp

Gemessene Checks

236.5M

236.491.175

Out-of-sample-Fenster

—

VorhergesagtRealisiert

Dies sind touch probabilities aus dem eigenen Zuverlässigkeitscheck des Modells, keine bewerteten Trade-Aufrufe — dafür siehe die live Scorecard.

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Was ist heute passiert?

Wähle pro Bedingung einen Wert - oder lass es bei "nicht ausgewählt", um sie zu ignorieren.

Passende Befunde

Alle anzeigen (inkl. unter 77%)

Wähle oben mindestens eine Bedingung aus, um passende Befunde zu sehen.

Filtern nach Bedingung braucht JavaScript. Unten: die top 20 Findings nach gemessenem Effekt für AVAXUSDT.

wenn / dann	Call	Bewertung	Rate vs. Basis	Delta	95% KI	n
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97,5%	S	2,5% vs. 10,7%	-8,2 pp	[1,3%, 4,8%]	322
it is Saturday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97,3%	S	2,7% vs. 10,7%	-8,0 pp	[1,1%, 6,1%]	188
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94,0%	S	6,0% vs. 36,8%	-30,7 pp	[4,1%, 8,8%]	399
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94,0%	S	6,0% vs. 33,2%	-27,2 pp	[4,2%, 8,7%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 16:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 16:00 UTC	NO 91,0%	S	9,0% vs. 34,8%	-25,7 pp	[6,7%, 12,1%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 16:00 UTC is below its low from before 16:00 UTC	NO 90,2%	S	9,8% vs. 38,9%	-29,1 pp	[7,2%, 13,1%]	399
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 89,6%	S	10,4% vs. 33,2%	-22,8 pp	[7,4%, 14,4%]	298
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 87,6%	S	12,4% vs. 39,9%	-27,4 pp	[9,1%, 16,6%]	298
the volatility regime is low (ATR well below its 90-day median) → today's range is wider than its trailing 20-day median range	NO 86,3%	S	13,7% vs. 32,5%	-18,8 pp	[10,9%, 17,1%]	482
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 86,0%	A	14,0% vs. 33,2%	-19,2 pp	[9,7%, 19,9%]	178
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 85,8%	A	14,2% vs. 36,8%	-22,5 pp	[10,8%, 18,5%]	316
price at 08:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 08:00 UTC is below its low from before 08:00 UTC	YES 83,1%	A	83,1% vs. 62,6%	+20,6 pp	[77,7%, 87,4%]	225
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 82,6%	A	17,4% vs. 42,8%	-25,4 pp	[13,6%, 22,0%]	316
today's range is the narrowest of the last 7 trading days (NR7) → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	YES 81,6%	A	81,6% vs. 48,5%	+33,2 pp	[75,8%, 86,3%]	207
it is Monday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 81,0%	B	19,0% vs. 10,7%	+8,4 pp	[14,1%, 25,2%]	189
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	NO 80,4%	B	19,6% vs. 48,5%	-28,9 pp	[15,6%, 24,2%]	322
the market closed down yesterday → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,8%	B	20,2% vs. 33,2%	-13,0 pp	[17,3%, 23,4%]	674
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,6%	B	20,4% vs. 36,8%	-16,3 pp	[15,2%, 26,9%]	181
it is Saturday → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,3%	B	20,7% vs. 36,8%	-16,0 pp	[15,6%, 27,1%]	188
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 08:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 08:00 UTC	YES 79,1%	B	79,1% vs. 60,7%	+18,4 pp	[74,3%, 83,2%]	316

520 weitere Findings für AVAXUSDT liegen unter der Anzeigeschwelle (|delta| < 8pp oder n < 120) und sind ausgeblendet.

KI-Methode: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). Quelle: crypto_conditional_tables;daypart=pooled;2026-09-30.