Szenario-Finder

Wähle einen Markt und hake dann ab, was heute tatsächlich passiert ist - ein Gap-Up, Asien nimmt das gestrige Hoch heraus, und so weiter. Wir zeigen jeden vorab verifizierten Treffer, der passt, mit gemessener Rate gegenüber der Basisrate, Stichprobengröße und Konfidenzintervall. Hier wird nichts live berechnet - jede Zeile hat die Mehrfachvergleichsprüfung der Research-Pipeline bereits bestanden (Bonferroni-Korrektur über Sektoren, Clusterchecks bei korrelierten Märkten). Siehe Methodik dafür.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Markt

Was ist heute passiert?

Wähle pro Bedingung einen Wert - oder lass es bei "nicht ausgewählt", um sie zu ignorieren.

Passende Befunde

Wähle oben mindestens eine Bedingung aus, um passende Befunde zu sehen.

Filtern nach Bedingung braucht JavaScript. Unten: die Top 20 Befunde nach gemessener Effektgröße für ES, ungefiltert.

wenn / dann	Rate vs. Basis	Delta	95% KI	n	Badge
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	93,2% vs. 37,2%	+56,0 pp	[88,5%, 96,1%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	84,1% vs. 32,5%	+51,5 pp	[77,6%, 89,0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	84,1% vs. 32,5%	+51,5 pp	[77,6%, 89,0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	85,4% vs. 34,8%	+50,5 pp	[79,0%, 90,0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	84,7% vs. 34,8%	+49,8 pp	[78,7%, 89,3%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	81,9% vs. 32,5%	+49,3 pp	[75,6%, 86,9%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	86,3% vs. 37,2%	+49,0 pp	[80,5%, 90,5%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London trades below the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	85,3% vs. 37,2%	+48,0 pp	[79,3%, 89,8%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	79,3% vs. 32,5%	+46,7 pp	[72,4%, 84,8%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	90,0% vs. 43,6%	+46,5 pp	[85,8%, 93,0%]	266	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market breaks above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	90,3% vs. 43,6%	+46,5 pp	[85,7%, 93,5%]	224	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	78,6% vs. 32,5%	+45,9 pp	[72,0%, 83,9%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market does not break above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	78,5% vs. 32,5%	+45,9 pp	[71,9%, 84,0%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	96,5% vs. 50,7%	+45,7 pp	[93,7%, 98,1%]	281	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	80,5% vs. 34,8%	+45,6 pp	[73,8%, 85,8%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	80,2% vs. 34,8%	+45,3 pp	[73,8%, 85,4%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	95,5% vs. 50,7%	+44,6 pp	[92,5%, 97,3%]	304	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	94,7% vs. 50,7%	+44,3 pp	[91,1%, 96,9%]	242	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the Asia session already traded below yesterday's low AND the rates sector average (ZB/ZN/ZF/ZT) opens higher vs. its prior session → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	— vs. 37,2%	+44,1 pp	—	193	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	94,0% vs. 50,7%	+43,5 pp	[90,1%, 96,4%]	227	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)

KI-Methode: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held. Quelle: verified_findings.parquet;2026-08-18.