シナリオファインダー

市場を選び、今日実際に起きたことをチェックしてください。たとえばギャップアップ、アジア時間で昨日高値を抜いた、などです。一致する事前検証済みの結果をすべて、実測率、ベースレート、サンプル数、信頼区間付きで表示します。ここで計算はしません。各行はすでに研究パイプラインの多重比較検証を通過しています。セクター横断のBonferroni補正と、相関クラスターのチェックです。詳しくは手法を参照。

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

市場

今日は何が起きたか

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一致した結果

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条件での絞り込みにはJavaScriptが必要。下は 20 件の、ES に対する測定効果量上位。未フィルタ。

条件 / 結果	基準比率	差分	95% CI	n	バッジ
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	93.2% 対 37.2%	+56.0 pp	[88.5%, 96.1%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	84.1% 対 32.5%	+51.5 pp	[77.6%, 89.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	84.1% 対 32.5%	+51.5 pp	[77.6%, 89.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	85.4% 対 34.8%	+50.5 pp	[79.0%, 90.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	84.7% 対 34.8%	+49.8 pp	[78.7%, 89.3%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	81.9% 対 32.5%	+49.3 pp	[75.6%, 86.9%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	86.3% 対 37.2%	+49.0 pp	[80.5%, 90.5%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London trades below the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	85.3% 対 37.2%	+48.0 pp	[79.3%, 89.8%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	79.3% 対 32.5%	+46.7 pp	[72.4%, 84.8%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	90.0% 対 43.6%	+46.5 pp	[85.8%, 93.0%]	266	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market breaks above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	90.3% 対 43.6%	+46.5 pp	[85.7%, 93.5%]	224	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	78.6% 対 32.5%	+45.9 pp	[72.0%, 83.9%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market does not break above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	78.5% 対 32.5%	+45.9 pp	[71.9%, 84.0%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	96.5% 対 50.7%	+45.7 pp	[93.7%, 98.1%]	281	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	80.5% 対 34.8%	+45.6 pp	[73.8%, 85.8%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	80.2% 対 34.8%	+45.3 pp	[73.8%, 85.4%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	95.5% 対 50.7%	+44.6 pp	[92.5%, 97.3%]	304	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	94.7% 対 50.7%	+44.3 pp	[91.1%, 96.9%]	242	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the Asia session already traded below yesterday's low AND the rates sector average (ZB/ZN/ZF/ZT) opens higher vs. its prior session → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	— 対 37.2%	+44.1 pp	—	193	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	94.0% 対 50.7%	+43.5 pp	[90.1%, 96.4%]	227	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)

CI手法: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held. 出典: verified_findings.parquet;2026-08-18.