시나리오 찾기

시장 하나를 고른 다음 오늘 실제로 벌어진 것만 체크하라. 갭 상승, 아시아가 전일 고가를 훑는지 같은 항목이다. 일치하는 모든 사전 검증 결과를 보여주며, 기준 대비 실현율, 표본 수, 신뢰구간을 함께 표시한다. 여기의 각 행은 실시간 계산이 아니다. 연구 파이프라인의 다중비교 검증(부문 간 Bonferroni 보정과 상관 클러스터 점검)을 이미 통과했다. 자세한 방식은 방법론 을 보면 된다.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

시장

오늘 무슨 일이 있었나?

조건마다 값 하나를 고르거나, 무시하려면 "선택 안 됨"로 둔다.

일치하는 결과

일치하는 결과를 보려면 위에서 조건을 하나 이상 선택하라.

조건별 필터링에는 JavaScript가 필요하다. 아래는 필터 없이 20개 상위 결과를 ES에 대해 측정 효과 크기 순으로 보여준다.

조건 / 결과	기준 대비 비율	변화	95% CI	n	배지
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	93.2% 대 37.2%	+56.0 pp	[88.5%, 96.1%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	84.1% 대 32.5%	+51.5 pp	[77.6%, 89.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	84.1% 대 32.5%	+51.5 pp	[77.6%, 89.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	85.4% 대 34.8%	+50.5 pp	[79.0%, 90.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	84.7% 대 34.8%	+49.8 pp	[78.7%, 89.3%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	81.9% 대 32.5%	+49.3 pp	[75.6%, 86.9%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	86.3% 대 37.2%	+49.0 pp	[80.5%, 90.5%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London trades below the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	85.3% 대 37.2%	+48.0 pp	[79.3%, 89.8%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	79.3% 대 32.5%	+46.7 pp	[72.4%, 84.8%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	90.0% 대 43.6%	+46.5 pp	[85.8%, 93.0%]	266	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market breaks above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	90.3% 대 43.6%	+46.5 pp	[85.7%, 93.5%]	224	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	78.6% 대 32.5%	+45.9 pp	[72.0%, 83.9%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market does not break above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	78.5% 대 32.5%	+45.9 pp	[71.9%, 84.0%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	96.5% 대 50.7%	+45.7 pp	[93.7%, 98.1%]	281	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	80.5% 대 34.8%	+45.6 pp	[73.8%, 85.8%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	80.2% 대 34.8%	+45.3 pp	[73.8%, 85.4%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	95.5% 대 50.7%	+44.6 pp	[92.5%, 97.3%]	304	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	94.7% 대 50.7%	+44.3 pp	[91.1%, 96.9%]	242	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the Asia session already traded below yesterday's low AND the rates sector average (ZB/ZN/ZF/ZT) opens higher vs. its prior session → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	— 대 37.2%	+44.1 pp	—	193	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	94.0% 대 50.7%	+43.5 pp	[90.1%, 96.4%]	227	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)

CI 방법: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held. 출처: verified_findings.parquet;2026-08-18.