This page is a rules-based backfill: the published rule replayed over 2010–2026 history (RTY from 2017-07). It is not a record of calls published before their outcomes. Live, timestamped calls are graded separately: see Live calibration below, and /ranges.
How the rule and tiers were set
The target and invalidation distances and the tier cutoffs are product design choices fixed before publication. They are not discoveries about the market, they were not fitted to outcomes, and we do not claim they are optimal. Given the rule, what we measure and publish is calibration: probabilities are fit on the years before Y and applied to year Y, then the stated probability is compared with what actually happened, per tier.
The rule
A call is graded by a published race: a 0.05 ATR target touch versus a 0.15 ATR invalidation close, capped at 40 periods.
Bars compose on regular trading hours only (09:30-16:00 ET) — extended-hours bars are excluded.
EXPIRED (neither target nor invalidation hit within the 40-period cap): 0.000% of calls (0) — excluded from the odds fit and from every tier's hit rate.
Live — calls published before their outcome
Live calibration, by tier
Every live call we published, graded against the probability it stated at publication. That probability is frozen when the call goes out and never recomputed. A call counts only if it was published before the bar that decided it closed; calls published after their outcome stay visible on their own pages but are not counted here.
Since 2026-09-28 (first counted call): 194 resolved calls.
Until 2026-09-29 15:16 UTC our live engine could build a longer-timeframe bar before it was complete, so some calls were opened on a price that was 15 to 30 minutes old. Those calls stay visible on their own pages, marked with a flag, but they are not counted in the numbers here. Every call published since the fix is counted as before.
Including calls from the period when bars were composed early (until 2026-09-29 15:16 UTC), kept for the record.Back to counted calls only
A hit rate is shown for an asset class once it has at least 250 counted S, A and B calls. This class has 194 so far, so only the call counts and the stated averages are shown for now.
tier
stated
actual
gap
95% interval
n
calibration
S
89.5%
—
—
—
188
not enough data yet (194 so far)
A
85.5%
—
—
—
6
not enough data yet (194 so far)
B
—
—
—
—
0
—
D
—
—
—
—
0
—
Actual = HIT / (HIT + MISS); expired calls are excluded, as in the backfill. The 95% interval is a Wilson score interval on the actual rate. Tiers with fewer than 30 resolved calls are marked not enough data yet.
Backfill — the rule replayed over history, not live calls
Stated vs. actual, by tier
tier
stated
actual
gap
n
reportable
A
85.2%
86.7%
+1.58 pp
41,736
yes
B
79.2%
87.6%
+8.40 pp
483
no
D
75.4%
86.1%
+10.67 pp
36
no
S
89.3%
90.2%
+0.95 pp
166,174
yes
Stated vs. actual, by year
year
stated
actual
gap
n
reportable
2006
88.0%
89.5%
+1.41 pp
9,261
yes
2007
88.7%
88.1%
-0.59 pp
8,896
yes
2008
88.6%
88.6%
-0.01 pp
9,783
yes
2009
88.6%
86.7%
-1.88 pp
10,661
yes
2010
88.2%
87.7%
-0.51 pp
10,447
yes
2011
88.1%
88.2%
+0.09 pp
14,494
yes
2012
88.1%
87.9%
-0.22 pp
14,273
yes
2013
88.0%
87.5%
-0.57 pp
15,741
yes
2014
88.0%
88.1%
+0.06 pp
17,494
yes
2015
87.8%
87.0%
-0.80 pp
17,471
yes
2016
87.9%
88.5%
+0.58 pp
18,794
yes
2017
87.9%
89.8%
+1.81 pp
17,526
yes
2018
88.1%
90.2%
+2.12 pp
20,155
yes
2019
88.4%
89.4%
+1.00 pp
17,746
yes
2020
88.3%
89.0%
+0.66 pp
19,444
yes
2021
88.5%
89.3%
+0.79 pp
19,839
yes
2022
88.4%
89.2%
+0.81 pp
25,663
yes
2023
88.6%
90.2%
+1.60 pp
19,386
yes
2024
88.8%
90.0%
+1.20 pp
18,977
yes
2025
88.9%
88.9%
+0.01 pp
16,851
yes
2026
88.9%
90.5%
+1.54 pp
14,048
yes
Stated vs. actual, by market
market
stated
actual
gap
n
reportable
AAPL
88.4%
89.4%
+0.97 pp
16,390
yes
AMD
88.4%
89.9%
+1.42 pp
14,761
yes
AMZN
88.4%
89.6%
+1.23 pp
16,434
yes
DIA
88.5%
88.2%
-0.27 pp
19,695
yes
GOOGL
88.4%
89.6%
+1.13 pp
15,042
yes
IWM
88.4%
89.5%
+1.18 pp
18,743
yes
META
88.5%
90.3%
+1.85 pp
14,307
yes
MSFT
88.4%
89.1%
+0.68 pp
15,269
yes
NVDA
88.4%
89.4%
+0.98 pp
16,595
yes
QQQ
88.4%
89.6%
+1.24 pp
23,926
yes
SPY
88.4%
89.6%
+1.23 pp
23,569
yes
TSLA
88.5%
90.3%
+1.86 pp
13,698
yes
Stated vs. actual, by timeframe
TF
stated
actual
gap
n
reportable
15m
88.5%
90.4%
+1.97 pp
66,266
yes
30m
88.9%
90.2%
+1.31 pp
34,839
yes
45m
88.9%
89.9%
+0.97 pp
24,809
yes
60m
89.0%
89.9%
+0.89 pp
19,223
yes
75m
88.1%
88.5%
+0.40 pp
16,900
yes
90m
88.0%
87.9%
-0.06 pp
14,231
yes
105m
87.8%
87.9%
+0.07 pp
11,699
yes
120m
87.4%
87.8%
+0.38 pp
11,410
yes
150m
86.9%
86.9%
+0.05 pp
9,052
yes
Payoff
What the published rule actually pays, per call, gross of costs: a hit realizes exactly the target (+0.05 ATR), a miss realizes the deciding close. High hit rate, small wins, larger losses — the expected value is slightly negative, and a call only breaks even above the win rate in the last column. Spread and commission make it worse.
tier
win %
payoff (avg win / avg loss)
EV/call (ATR, gross)
break-even win %
overall
88.9%
0.050
-0.067
95.3%
A
85.9%
0.048
-0.103
95.4%
B
82.1%
0.064
-0.098
93.9%
D
88.1%
0.054
-0.066
94.9%
S
89.7%
0.050
-0.058
95.2%
Fixed-horizon side number
1-period close-vs-entry outcome, reported ALONGSIDE the v3 asymmetric-race status (target touch / invalidation close) -- 'hit is not whether it paid'. Independent field, not a substitute for the main HIT/MISS/EXPIRED status.
All times are US Eastern (ET). "date" is when the call became known: the close of the trigger bar, whose closing price is the entry. "resolved" is the close of the bar that decided HIT or MISS.
By market, year by year
Stated vs. actual hit rate for tiers S, A and B, year by year for each market. This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record.
SPY
SPY: 89.6% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+1.2 pp) across 26,900 calls
QQQ
QQQ: 89.9% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.6 pp) across 33,654 calls
IWM
IWM: 89.8% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.5 pp) across 34,310 calls
DIA
DIA: 87.8% actual vs. 88.4% stated (-0.6 pp) across 36,594 calls
AAPL
AAPL: 89.5% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.2 pp) across 32,174 calls
MSFT
MSFT: 89.3% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.9 pp) across 27,967 calls
NVDA
NVDA: 88.6% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+0.2 pp) across 30,772 calls
AMZN
AMZN: 89.3% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.0 pp) across 29,184 calls
META
META: 90.3% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+1.9 pp) across 19,188 calls
GOOGL
GOOGL: 89.1% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.8 pp) across 17,803 calls
TSLA
TSLA: 88.8% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.4 pp) across 19,671 calls
AMD
AMD: 85.2% actual vs. 88.2% stated (-3.0 pp) across 28,662 calls
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