Avalanche (AVAXUSDT)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 11:14 ET

last quote 7.4640 · as of 11:20 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-25T15:14:41.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

FOXALGO / AVAXUSDT CANDLESTICK

LIVEDATA: BINANCE · REALTIMELAST 7.464

AVAXUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	7.56	44.1%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	7.37	49.1%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	7.65	19.7%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	7.28	20.4%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	7.74	8.9%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	7.18	10.0%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.3980

high 7.7290 / low 7.3310 · n=62 bars

position in today's range

33.4%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0770

open 7.5410

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / AVAXUSDT INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	41.5%	43.2%	2,624
0.25	10.9%	11.4%	2,624
0.5	1.9%	1.6%	2,624

Measured from the 900-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekday).

FOXALGO / AVAXUSDT INSTRUMENT 01

AVAXUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekday)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) up	down level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) down	n
0.25	7.5574	44.1%	7.3706	49.1%	2,623
0.5	7.6509	19.7%	7.2771	20.4%	2,623
0.75	7.7443	8.9%	7.1837	10.0%	2,623

Brackets

Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Avalanche

alt L1s

MAE: 1.35 pp · n = 236,491,175

0-20%

predicted 7.1% · realized 7.0% · n = 133,371,361

20-40%

predicted 28.9% · realized 28.9% · n = 35,101,210

40-60%

predicted 50.9% · realized 51.0% · n = 30,469,730

60-80%

predicted 71.3% · realized 71.5% · n = 28,635,113

80-100%

predicted 82.0% · realized 82.4% · n = 8,913,761

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-15	6.5930	32.1%	touched ✓
2026-08-16	6.4618	32.1%	not touched ✗
2026-08-17	6.4393	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-18	6.4579	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-19	6.4371	40.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-20	6.8874	40.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-21	7.4295	40.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-22	7.9906	32.1%	touched ✓
2026-08-23	7.6769	32.1%	not touched ✗
2026-08-24	7.7911	40.2%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →