foxalgoAvalanche (AVAXUSDT)
last quote 10.20 · as of 07:01 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-14T11:00:42.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.
AVAXUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 10.35 | 54.8% | ✓ touched |
| -0.25 ATR | 10.04 | 59.5% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 10.51 | 26.3% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 9.89 | 29.6% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 10.66 | 13.2% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 9.73 | 14.8% | not touched yet |
Live hit rate — AVAXUSDT
collecting data
By tier
| Tier | Hit | n | Hit % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 22 | 24 | 91.7% |
| A | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| B | 0 | 0 | — |
Range state now
Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.
| TF | Direction | High | Mid | Low | Size (ATR) | Position | Age (bars) | Before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m | ▲ | 10.19 | 10.17 | 10.14 | 1.0 | 94% | 1 | |
| 30m | ▼ | 10.21 | 10.19 | 10.16 | 0.7 | 38% | 1 | |
| 1h | ▼ | 10.35 | 10.26 | 10.17 | 1.7 | 8% | 4 | |
| 2h | ▼ | 10.35 | 10.25 | 10.16 | 1.0 | 13% | 11 | |
| 4h | ▼ | 10.59 | 10.36 | 10.13 | 1.7 | 15% | 8 |
See the range state of every market
Historical backfill, year by year
This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.
AVAXUSDT: 91.1% actual vs. 88.7% stated (+2.4 pp) across 20,440 calls
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 33.7% | 34.7% | 2,627 |
| 0.25 | 5.8% | 7.1% | 2,627 |
| 0.5 | not yet measured | not yet measured | — |
Measured from the 660-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekday).
AVAXUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekday)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) up | down level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 10.35 | 54.8% | 10.04 | 59.5% | 2,622 |
| 0.5 | 10.51 | 26.3% | 9.8879 | 29.6% | 2,622 |
| 0.75 | 10.66 | 13.2% | 9.7334 | 14.8% | 2,622 |
Brackets
Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for Avalanche
alt L1s
MAE: 1.35 pp · n = 236,491,175
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 11.55 | 32.1% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-05 | 11.47 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-06 | 11.48 | 40.2% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-07 | 11.96 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-08 | 11.45 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-09 | 10.42 | 40.2% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-10 | 10.68 | 32.1% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-11 | 10.68 | 32.1% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-12 | 11.29 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-13 | 10.48 | 40.2% | touched ✓ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.