Daily wrap-up — 2026-10-13

Predictions are P(touch) on ±0.5 ATR, frozen before the session opens. This is a calibration check, not a directional "win" or "loss".

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Says → lands

Every prediction is frozen before the session opens and graded after it closes — nothing here is rewritten after the fact.

Lifetime · Weighted calibration

3.01 pp

Average gap between what we said and what landed, across 1,596 evaluated predictions, weighted by sample size. Zero is perfect.

Last 90 days · Weighted calibration

2.71 pp

Average gap between what we said and what landed, across 1,476 evaluated predictions, weighted by sample size. Zero is perfect.

▲ says (predicted) · ● lands (realized) · band = 95% CI. Highlighted when says falls outside the band.

Lifetime

tier	says	lands	calibration	n
25-30%	28.7%	20.3%	[12.3%, 31.7%]	64
35-40%	39.4%	38.0%	[34.6%, 41.5%]	766
40-45%	41.2%	45.4%	[41.9%, 49.0%]	766

Tiers with no evaluated predictions are omitted.

Last 90 days

tier	says	lands	calibration	n
25-30%	28.7%	20.3%	[12.3%, 31.7%]	64
35-40%	39.4%	38.7%	[35.1%, 42.3%]	706
40-45%	41.2%	45.5%	[41.8%, 49.2%]	706

Tiers with no evaluated predictions are omitted.

predictions

24 evaluated · 0 pending

mean predicted

40.3%

average P(touch) across evaluated predictions

realized share

45.8%

share of evaluated predictions that touched

calibration gap

+5.56 pp

realized share minus mean predicted

Brier score

0.252

mean squared error of predicted vs. outcome — lower is better, 0 is perfect

Futures

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
WTI Crude	+0.50 ATR	39.5%	touched
WTI Crude	-0.50 ATR	41.3%	not touched
E-mini S&P 500	+0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
E-mini S&P 500	-0.50 ATR	40.6%	not touched
Gold	+0.50 ATR	38.4%	not touched
Gold	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	touched
E-mini Nasdaq 100	+0.50 ATR	39.7%	touched
E-mini Nasdaq 100	-0.50 ATR	40.6%	not touched
E-mini Russell 2000	+0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
E-mini Russell 2000	-0.50 ATR	40.6%	touched
E-mini Dow	+0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
E-mini Dow	-0.50 ATR	40.6%	touched

Stocks

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Apple	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	touched
Apple	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
Microsoft	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	touched
Microsoft	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
Nvidia	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	touched
Nvidia	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	+0.50 ATR	40.8%	not touched
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	-0.50 ATR	42.0%	not touched

Crypto

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Bitcoin	+0.50 ATR	37.9%	touched
Bitcoin	-0.50 ATR	41.9%	not touched
Ethereum	+0.50 ATR	37.9%	touched
Ethereum	-0.50 ATR	41.9%	touched

Today so far

2026-10-14's predictions are frozen but the session hasn't closed yet — no outcomes until it does.

Crypto

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Bitcoin	+0.50 ATR	37.9%	pending
Bitcoin	-0.50 ATR	41.9%	pending
Ethereum	+0.50 ATR	37.9%	pending
Ethereum	-0.50 ATR	41.9%	pending

Daily wrap-up — 2026-10-13

Says → lands

Lifetime

Last 90 days

Futures

Stocks

Crypto

Today so far

Crypto

Archive