Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) (QQQ)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 11:15 ET

last quote 709.50 · as of 11:22 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-25T15:15:00.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / QQQ CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 709.5

QQQ · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	711.67	58.0%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	707.33	52.5%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	713.84	24.5%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	705.16	27.2%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	716.02	10.2%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	702.98	14.0%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	718.19	4.0%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	700.81	6.5%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	722.53	0.9%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	696.47	1.9%	not touched yet

today's range so far

6.5900

high 714.04 / low 707.45 · n=8 bars

position in today's range

31.1%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-1.7700

open 711.27

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / QQQ INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	65.1%	60.6%	1,861
0.25	25.0%	23.5%	1,861
0.5	3.2%	4.9%	1,861

Measured from the 90-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / QQQ INSTRUMENT 01

QQQ · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	711.67	58.0%	707.33	52.5%	1,861
0.5	713.84	24.5%	705.16	27.2%	1,861
0.75	716.02	10.2%	702.98	14.0%	1,861
1	718.19	4.0%	700.81	6.5%	1,861
1.5	722.53	0.9%	696.47	1.9%	1,861

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

ETF

MAE: 1.09 pp · n = 7,475,484

0-20%

predicted 3.9% · realized 4.5% · n = 4,907,228

20-40%

predicted 29.3% · realized 29.8% · n = 843,064

40-60%

predicted 50.4% · realized 50.2% · n = 727,647

60-80%

predicted 70.5% · realized 70.7% · n = 757,861

80-100%

predicted 82.4% · realized 81.8% · n = 239,684

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-11	730.41	24.5%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	734.27	24.5%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	732.03	24.5%	touched ✓
2026-08-14	740.29	24.5%	not touched ✗
2026-08-17	739.46	24.5%	not touched ✗
2026-08-18	726.40	24.5%	not touched ✗
2026-08-19	726.41	24.5%	not touched ✗
2026-08-20	717.59	24.5%	not touched ✗
2026-08-21	720.44	24.5%	not touched ✗
2026-08-24	714.54	24.5%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →