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Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) (QQQ)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 743.57 · as of 07:01 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-13T20:00:00.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / QQQ CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 743.57

QQQ · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR745.6866.8%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR741.4666.5%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR747.8040.8%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR739.3442.0%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR749.9121.5%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR737.2325.7%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR752.039.5%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR735.1114.3%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR756.261.9%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR730.883.8%not touched yet
today's range so far
5.3600
high 744.20 / low 738.84 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
88.2%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
+4.0420
open 739.53

Live hit rate — QQQ

Live hit rate
89%
n = 18
95% confidence interval
67–97%
Wilson interval
All six markets
89%
n = 18
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
QQQ minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S161888.9%
A00—
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
1 up, 4 down
As of 2026-10-13 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▲743.93743.36742.801.173%0
30m▼743.97741.40738.843.593%12
1h▼744.20741.52738.842.689%6
2h▼744.20741.52738.841.789%3
4h▼744.20741.52738.841.289%1

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002011 stated: 88.0%2011 actual: 90.1% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 1,59320112012 stated: 88.1%2012 actual: 91.1% (+3.0 pp) -- n = 1,96020122013 stated: 88.2%2013 actual: 89.4% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 1,70620132014 stated: 88.0%2014 actual: 90.2% (+2.2 pp) -- n = 2,21120142015 stated: 88.0%2015 actual: 91.3% (+3.3 pp) -- n = 2,26220152016 stated: 88.0%2016 actual: 88.3% (+0.2 pp) -- n = 1,81620162017 stated: 87.9%2017 actual: 90.1% (+2.2 pp) -- n = 2,12620172018 stated: 88.0%2018 actual: 90.7% (+2.6 pp) -- n = 2,16620182019 stated: 88.3%2019 actual: 89.2% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 1,81920192020 stated: 88.3%2020 actual: 90.0% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 2,33120202021 stated: 88.5%2021 actual: 88.7% (+0.3 pp) -- n = 2,31620212022 stated: 88.4%2022 actual: 88.2% (-0.2 pp) -- n = 2,50720222023 stated: 88.5%2023 actual: 90.4% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 2,36220232024 stated: 88.6%2024 actual: 90.8% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 2,53020242025 stated: 88.9%2025 actual: 89.1% (+0.2 pp) -- n = 2,18720252026 stated: 88.8%2026 actual: 90.2% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 1,7622026

QQQ: 89.9% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.6 pp) across 33,654 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / QQQ INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.160.0%62.7%1,861
0.2520.5%25.5%1,861
0.54.4%5.7%1,861

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / QQQ INSTRUMENT 01

QQQ · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25745.6866.8%741.4666.5%1,861
0.5747.8040.8%739.3442.0%1,861
0.75749.9121.5%737.2325.7%1,861
1752.039.5%735.1114.3%1,861
1.5756.261.9%730.883.8%1,861

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

ETF

MAE: 1.09 pp · n = 7,475,484

0-20%
predicted 3.9% · realized 4.5% · n = 4,907,228
20-40%
predicted 29.3% · realized 29.8% · n = 843,064
40-60%
predicted 50.4% · realized 50.2% · n = 727,647
60-80%
predicted 70.5% · realized 70.7% · n = 757,861
80-100%
predicted 82.4% · realized 81.8% · n = 239,684

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-29745.1440.8%not touched ✗
2026-09-30745.1640.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-01747.4040.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-02756.1840.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-05754.2340.8%touched ✓
2026-10-06765.4740.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-07758.5640.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-08758.5440.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-09757.4040.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-12753.9540.8%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →