Dogecoin (DOGEUSDT)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 07:00 ET

last quote 0.0843 · as of 07:02 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-14T11:00:49.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

FOXALGO / DOGEUSDT CANDLESTICK

LIVEDATA: BINANCE · REALTIMELAST 0.08427

DOGEUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	0.09	54.8%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	0.08	59.5%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	0.09	26.3%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	0.08	29.6%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	0.09	13.2%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	0.08	14.8%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.0018

high 0.0856 / low 0.0838 · n=45 bars

position in today's range

27.4%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0001

open 0.0843

Live hit rate — DOGEUSDT

Live hit rate

89%

n = 18

95% confidence interval

67–97%

Wilson interval

All six markets

89%

n = 18

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

DOGEUSDT minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	16	18	88.9%
A	0	0	—
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Dogecoin

1 up, 4 down

As of 2026-10-14 06:15 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▼	0.084290	0.084080	0.083870	1.3	45%	0
30m	▼	0.084580	0.084360	0.084140	1.1	20%	1
1h	▼	0.084580	0.084305	0.084030	0.9	36%	0
2h	▲	0.084960	0.084505	0.084050	0.7	20%	7
4h	▼	0.085490	0.083780	0.082070	2.2	79%	8

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

DOGEUSDT: 87.2% actual vs. 88.2% stated (-1.0 pp) across 14,365 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / DOGEUSDT INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	33.7%	34.7%	2,627
0.25	5.8%	7.1%	2,627
0.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—

Measured from the 660-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekday).

FOXALGO / DOGEUSDT INSTRUMENT 01

DOGEUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekday)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) up	down level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) down	n
0.25	0.0853	54.8%	0.0833	59.5%	2,622
0.5	0.0863	26.3%	0.0823	29.6%	2,622
0.75	0.0873	13.2%	0.0813	14.8%	2,622

Brackets

Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Dogecoin

alt L1s

MAE: 1.35 pp · n = 236,491,175

0-20%

predicted 7.1% · realized 7.0% · n = 133,371,361

20-40%

predicted 28.9% · realized 28.9% · n = 35,101,210

40-60%

predicted 50.9% · realized 51.0% · n = 30,469,730

60-80%

predicted 71.3% · realized 71.5% · n = 28,635,113

80-100%

predicted 82.0% · realized 82.4% · n = 8,913,761

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-04	0.0957	32.1%	touched ✓
2026-10-05	0.0988	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-06	0.0979	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-07	0.0961	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-08	0.0911	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-09	0.0863	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-10	0.0875	32.1%	not touched ✗
2026-10-11	0.0877	32.1%	not touched ✗
2026-10-12	0.0887	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-13	0.0842	40.2%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →