WTI Crude (CL)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 10:05 ET

last quote 82.61 · as of 10:20 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-25T14:05:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / CL CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 82.61

CL · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

Prior Day High/Low Prior Week High/Low Prior Month High/Low

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	83.32	63.9%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	81.90	63.1%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	84.04	37.7%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	81.18	37.4%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	84.75	20.5%	✓ touched
-0.75 ATR	80.47	21.4%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	85.47	10.2%	✓ touched
-1.00 ATR	79.75	11.6%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	86.89	2.6%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	78.33	3.1%	not touched yet

today's range so far

3.6800

high 85.49 / low 81.81 · n=42 bars

position in today's range

21.7%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-2.8300

open 85.44

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 1.288 → wide (n = 9,163)

narrow < 0.364, typical < 0.522, else wide — based on a partial-session window (42 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / CL INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	44.9%	47.3%	8,956
0.25	12.8%	13.5%	8,956
0.5	1.6%	1.7%	8,956

Measured from the 600-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / CL INSTRUMENT 01

CL · P(touch by close)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close) up	down level	P(touch by close) down	n
0.25	83.32	63.9%	81.90	63.1%	9,574
0.5	84.04	37.7%	81.18	37.4%	9,574
0.75	84.75	20.5%	80.47	21.4%	9,574
1	85.47	10.2%	79.75	11.6%	9,574
1.5	86.89	2.6%	78.33	3.1%	9,574

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 30 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TP	SL	P(TP first)	P(SL first)	P(neither)	n
0.5 ATR	0.25 ATR	31.5%	67.3%	1.2%	7,138
0.5 ATR	0.5 ATR	44.3%	47.9%	7.8%	7,138
1 ATR	0.5 ATR	19.6%	55.1%	25.4%	7,138

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for WTI Crude

energy futures

MAE: 1.01 pp · n = 48,788,856

0-20%

predicted 6.4% · realized 6.6% · n = 22,390,698

20-40%

predicted 28.8% · realized 28.8% · n = 8,103,563

40-60%

predicted 48.5% · realized 48.7% · n = 6,224,436

60-80%

predicted 71.4% · realized 71.4% · n = 6,944,629

80-100%

predicted 86.2% · realized 86.9% · n = 5,125,530

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-11	84.86	37.7%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	85.97	37.7%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	85.01	37.7%	not touched ✗
2026-08-14	83.51	37.7%	not touched ✗
2026-08-17	84.58	37.7%	touched ✓
2026-08-18	86.98	37.7%	not touched ✗
2026-08-19	87.25	37.7%	not touched ✗
2026-08-20	87.63	37.7%	touched ✓
2026-08-21	88.01	37.7%	not touched ✗
2026-08-24	88.09	37.7%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

date	level	predicted p	outcome	price at freeze	realized high/low
2026-08-25	+0.5 ATR → 83.05	39.5%	pending	82.1	—
2026-08-25	-0.5 ATR → 81.15	41.3%	pending	82.1	—
2026-08-24	+0.5 ATR → 86.45	39.5%	not touched	85.5	85.77999877929688 / 84.36000061035156
2026-08-24	-0.5 ATR → 84.55	41.3%	touched	85.5	85.77999877929688 / 84.36000061035156
2026-08-21	+0.5 ATR → 87.67	39.5%	not touched	86.68	87.45999908447266 / 86.13999938964844
2026-08-21	-0.5 ATR → 85.69	41.3%	not touched	86.68	87.45999908447266 / 86.13999938964844
2026-08-20	+0.5 ATR → 87.74	39.5%	not touched	86.73	86.9800033569336 / 85.69000244140625
2026-08-20	-0.5 ATR → 85.72	41.3%	touched	86.73	86.9800033569336 / 85.69000244140625
2026-08-19	+0.5 ATR → 85.27	39.5%	touched	84.27	85.83999633789062 / 83.93000030517578
2026-08-19	-0.5 ATR → 83.27	41.3%	not touched	84.27	85.83999633789062 / 83.93000030517578
2026-08-18	+0.5 ATR → 85.73	39.5%	not touched	84.72000122070312	85.06999969482422 / 83.77999877929688
2026-08-18	-0.5 ATR → 83.71	41.3%	not touched	84.72000122070312	85.06999969482422 / 83.77999877929688
2026-08-17	+0.5 ATR → 83.82	39.5%	touched	82.7699966430664	84.87999725341797 / 82.0999984741211
2026-08-17	-0.5 ATR → 81.72	41.3%	not touched	82.7699966430664	84.87999725341797 / 82.0999984741211
2026-08-14	+0.5 ATR → 82.37	39.5%	touched	81.29000091552734	82.66999816894531 / 80.76000213623047
2026-08-14	-0.5 ATR → 80.21	41.3%	not touched	81.29000091552734	82.66999816894531 / 80.76000213623047
2026-08-13	+0.5 ATR → 82.12	39.5%	touched	81.04000091552734	82.7300033569336 / 80.08999633789062
2026-08-13	-0.5 ATR → 79.96	41.3%	not touched	81.04000091552734	82.7300033569336 / 80.08999633789062
2026-08-12	+0.5 ATR → 84.04	39.5%	not touched	82.9000015258789	83.45999908447266 / 82.4000015258789
2026-08-12	-0.5 ATR → 81.76	41.3%	not touched	82.9000015258789	83.45999908447266 / 82.4000015258789

See all verified findings →