WTI Crude (CL)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 06:35 ET

last quote 95.32 · as of 07:00 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-14T10:35:52.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / CL CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 95.32

CL · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

Prior Day High/Low Prior Week High/Low Prior Month High/Low

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	96.36	70.9%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	94.28	72.4%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	97.40	46.6%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	93.24	49.1%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	98.45	28.7%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	92.19	31.1%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	99.49	16.7%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	91.15	18.9%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	101.57	5.0%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	89.07	6.0%	not touched yet

today's range so far

1.5100

high 95.48 / low 93.97 · n=28 bars

position in today's range

89.4%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+0.5500

open 94.77

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

Market closed — levels as of last session.

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — CL

Live hit rate

95%

n = 188

95% confidence interval

90–97%

Wilson interval

All six markets

95%

n = 188

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

CL minus the combined rate, in percentage points

506070809010031

Sep 08Sep 14Sep 20Sep 29Oct 07Oct 13

CLAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	175	185	94.6%
A	3	3	100.0%
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

WTI Crude

5 up, 0 down

As of 2026-10-14 06:15 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▲	95.39	95.18	94.97	1.3	83%	0
30m	▲	95.03	94.79	94.55	1.3	81%	0
1h	▲	95.03	94.50	93.97	1.9	92%	0
2h	▲	95.03	94.50	93.97	1.5	92%	0
4h	▲	95.41	94.96	94.51	0.7	48%	2

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

CL: 89.5% actual vs. 88.1% stated (+1.4 pp) across 45,648 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.362 → wide (n = 8,783)

narrow < 0.238, typical < 0.355, else wide — based on a partial-session window (28 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / CL INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	15.6%	15.5%	7,284
0.25	1.2%	1.4%	7,284
0.5	0.1%	0.2%	7,284

Measured from the 390-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / CL INSTRUMENT 01

CL · P(touch by close)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close) up	down level	P(touch by close) down	n
0.25	96.36	70.9%	94.28	72.4%	9,305
0.5	97.40	46.6%	93.24	49.2%	9,305
0.75	98.45	28.7%	92.19	31.1%	9,305
1	99.49	16.7%	91.15	18.9%	9,305
1.5	101.57	5.0%	89.07	6.0%	9,305

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 0 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TP	SL	P(TP first)	P(SL first)	P(neither)	n
0.5 ATR	0.25 ATR	31.5%	67.4%	1.1%	7,948
0.5 ATR	0.5 ATR	45.5%	47.4%	7.1%	7,948
1 ATR	0.5 ATR	19.8%	54.8%	25.4%	7,948

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for WTI Crude

energy futures

MAE: 1.01 pp · n = 48,788,856

0-20%

predicted 6.4% · realized 6.6% · n = 22,390,698

20-40%

predicted 28.8% · realized 28.8% · n = 8,103,563

40-60%

predicted 48.5% · realized 48.7% · n = 6,224,436

60-80%

predicted 71.4% · realized 71.4% · n = 6,944,629

80-100%

predicted 86.2% · realized 86.9% · n = 5,125,530

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-09-30	91.69	46.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-01	92.90	46.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-02	95.93	46.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-05	94.25	46.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-06	91.67	46.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-07	92.30	46.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-08	91.33	46.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-09	93.64	46.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-12	94.01	46.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-13	95.38	46.6%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

date	level	predicted p	outcome	price at freeze	realized high/low
2026-10-13	+0.5 ATR → 94.20	39.5%	touched	92.85	94.81999969482422 / 92.9000015258789
2026-10-13	-0.5 ATR → 91.50	41.3%	not touched	92.85	94.81999969482422 / 92.9000015258789
2026-10-12	+0.5 ATR → 95.12	39.5%	not touched	93.69	94.36000061035156 / 93.25
2026-10-12	-0.5 ATR → 92.26	41.3%	not touched	93.69	94.36000061035156 / 93.25
2026-10-09	+0.5 ATR → 92.43	39.5%	not touched	90.99	92.16999816894531 / 90.58000183105469
2026-10-09	-0.5 ATR → 89.55	41.3%	not touched	90.99	92.16999816894531 / 90.58000183105469
2026-10-08	+0.5 ATR → 93.67	39.5%	not touched	92.24	93.19999694824219 / 90.25
2026-10-08	-0.5 ATR → 90.81	41.3%	touched	92.24	93.19999694824219 / 90.25
2026-10-07	+0.5 ATR → 91.34	39.5%	not touched	89.94	90.91999816894531 / 87.95999908447266
2026-10-07	-0.5 ATR → 88.54	41.3%	touched	89.94	90.91999816894531 / 87.95999908447266
2026-10-06	+0.5 ATR → 88.78	39.5%	touched	87.35	89.8499984741211 / 87.66999816894531
2026-10-06	-0.5 ATR → 85.92	41.3%	not touched	87.35	89.8499984741211 / 87.66999816894531
2026-10-05	+0.5 ATR → 91.12	39.5%	touched	89.64	91.30999755859375 / 88.73999786376953
2026-10-05	-0.5 ATR → 88.16	41.3%	not touched	89.64	91.30999755859375 / 88.73999786376953
2026-10-02	+0.5 ATR → 90.34	39.5%	touched	88.85	92.0199966430664 / 88.19999694824219
2026-10-02	-0.5 ATR → 87.36	41.3%	not touched	88.85	92.0199966430664 / 88.19999694824219
2026-10-01	+0.5 ATR → 92.42	39.5%	touched	90.96	93.68000030517578 / 91.08999633789062
2026-10-01	-0.5 ATR → 89.50	41.3%	not touched	90.96	93.68000030517578 / 91.08999633789062
2026-09-30	+0.5 ATR → 91.69	39.5%	touched	90.13	91.95999908447266 / 90.33000183105469
2026-09-30	-0.5 ATR → 88.57	41.3%	not touched	90.13	91.95999908447266 / 90.33000183105469

See all verified findings →