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Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) (IWM)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 276.70 · as of 07:01 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-13T20:00:00.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / IWM CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 276.7

IWM · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR277.6066.8%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR275.8066.5%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR278.5040.8%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR274.9042.0%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR279.4021.5%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR274.0025.7%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR280.299.5%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR273.1114.3%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR282.091.9%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR271.313.8%not touched yet
today's range so far
3.2300
high 278.70 / low 275.47 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
38.1%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-1.2800
open 277.98

Live hit rate — IWM

Live hit rate
87%
n = 15
95% confidence interval
62–96%
Wilson interval
All six markets
87%
n = 15
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
IWM minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S131492.9%
A010.0%
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
3 up, 2 down
As of 2026-10-13 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▲277.24276.77276.312.546%7
30m▲277.24276.77276.311.846%3
1h▲277.24276.68276.131.655%2
2h▼278.70277.36276.012.327%3
4h▼278.70277.09275.471.739%1

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002006 stated: 88.0%2006 actual: 92.0% (+4.0 pp) -- n = 1,40520062007 stated: 88.6%2007 actual: 88.2% (-0.4 pp) -- n = 1,05320072008 stated: 88.5%2008 actual: 86.9% (-1.6 pp) -- n = 1,44920082009 stated: 88.5%2009 actual: 88.3% (-0.2 pp) -- n = 1,61920092010 stated: 87.9%2010 actual: 89.4% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 1,77620102011 stated: 88.1%2011 actual: 90.5% (+2.5 pp) -- n = 1,91420112012 stated: 88.3%2012 actual: 92.0% (+3.7 pp) -- n = 1,43920122013 stated: 88.0%2013 actual: 91.5% (+3.5 pp) -- n = 2,02120132014 stated: 88.0%2014 actual: 90.5% (+2.5 pp) -- n = 1,54320142015 stated: 88.2%2015 actual: 90.7% (+2.4 pp) -- n = 1,35220152016 stated: 87.8%2016 actual: 90.5% (+2.7 pp) -- n = 2,01020162017 stated: 87.9%2017 actual: 89.2% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 1,17420172018 stated: 87.9%2018 actual: 87.3% (-0.6 pp) -- n = 1,76520182019 stated: 88.2%2019 actual: 90.3% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 1,61720192020 stated: 88.5%2020 actual: 90.1% (+1.5 pp) -- n = 1,83220202021 stated: 88.6%2021 actual: 90.9% (+2.4 pp) -- n = 1,87720212022 stated: 88.4%2022 actual: 89.9% (+1.5 pp) -- n = 2,33620222023 stated: 88.5%2023 actual: 90.8% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 1,80320232024 stated: 88.9%2024 actual: 88.3% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 1,51920242025 stated: 88.8%2025 actual: 87.1% (-1.7 pp) -- n = 1,65120252026 stated: 89.0%2026 actual: 90.0% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 1,1552026

IWM: 89.8% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.5 pp) across 34,310 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / IWM INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.160.0%62.7%1,861
0.2520.5%25.5%1,861
0.54.4%5.7%1,861

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / IWM INSTRUMENT 01

IWM · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25277.6066.8%275.8066.5%1,861
0.5278.5040.8%274.9042.0%1,861
0.75279.4021.5%274.0025.7%1,861
1280.299.5%273.1114.3%1,861
1.5282.091.9%271.313.8%1,861

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

ETF

MAE: 1.09 pp · n = 7,475,484

0-20%
predicted 3.9% · realized 4.5% · n = 4,907,228
20-40%
predicted 29.3% · realized 29.8% · n = 843,064
40-60%
predicted 50.4% · realized 50.2% · n = 727,647
60-80%
predicted 70.5% · realized 70.7% · n = 757,861
80-100%
predicted 82.4% · realized 81.8% · n = 239,684

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-29282.1140.8%not touched ✗
2026-09-30282.0040.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-01279.1640.8%touched ✓
2026-10-02284.1840.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-05283.8640.8%touched ✓
2026-10-06286.3340.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-07280.1040.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-08278.1740.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-09280.0840.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-12280.3440.8%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →