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AMD (AMD)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 605.53 · as of 07:00 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-13T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / AMD CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 605.53

AMD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR611.1366.7%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR599.9369.6%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR616.7439.9%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR594.3241.1%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR622.3423.3%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR588.7220.9%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR627.9512.9%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR583.1111.0%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR639.163.9%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR571.902.5%not touched yet
today's range so far
35.60
high 606.20 / low 570.60 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
98.1%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
+28.03
open 577.50

Live hit rate — AMD

Live hit rate
100%
n = 11
95% confidence interval
74–100%
Wilson interval
All six markets
100%
n = 11
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
AMD minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S1111100.0%
A00—
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

AMD
5 up, 0 down
As of 2026-10-13 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▲606.20603.58600.951.787%0
30m▲606.20602.85599.511.490%0
1h▲606.20602.85599.511.190%0
2h▲606.20602.85599.510.790%0
4h▲606.20600.26594.320.894%0

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002006 stated: 88.0%2006 actual: 90.3% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 1,40820062007 stated: 88.7%2007 actual: 90.5% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 1,42820072008 stated: 88.6%2008 actual: 87.5% (-1.1 pp) -- n = 1,34420082009 stated: 88.4%2009 actual: 76.7% (-11.7 pp) -- n = 1,15020092010 stated: 88.1%2010 actual: 85.1% (-3.0 pp) -- n = 1,29220102011 stated: 88.0%2011 actual: 86.5% (-1.5 pp) -- n = 1,41420112012 stated: 88.0%2012 actual: 80.4% (-7.5 pp) -- n = 1,50320122013 stated: 87.7%2013 actual: 72.4% (-15.4 pp) -- n = 1,37320132014 stated: 87.3%2014 actual: 72.2% (-15.1 pp) -- n = 1,32320142015 stated: 86.8%2015 actual: 63.6% (-23.2 pp) -- n = 1,66720152016 stated: 87.6%2016 actual: 81.9% (-5.7 pp) -- n = 1,39020162017 stated: 88.2%2017 actual: 91.4% (+3.2 pp) -- n = 91720172018 stated: 87.9%2018 actual: 89.7% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 1,30120182019 stated: 88.1%2019 actual: 91.0% (+2.9 pp) -- n = 1,33520192020 stated: 88.4%2020 actual: 89.7% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 1,18620202021 stated: 88.6%2021 actual: 90.8% (+2.2 pp) -- n = 1,42220212022 stated: 88.6%2022 actual: 90.7% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 1,97420222023 stated: 88.8%2023 actual: 90.5% (+1.7 pp) -- n = 1,51220232024 stated: 88.8%2024 actual: 90.7% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 1,53020242025 stated: 89.0%2025 actual: 89.5% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 1,01620252026 stated: 89.1%2026 actual: 93.3% (+4.2 pp) -- n = 1,1772026

AMD: 85.2% actual vs. 88.2% stated (-3.0 pp) across 28,662 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / AMD INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.148.9%59.9%1,152
0.2513.9%18.3%1,152
0.52.2%1.8%1,152

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / AMD INSTRUMENT 01

AMD · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25611.1366.7%599.9369.6%1,152
0.5616.7439.9%594.3241.1%1,152
0.75622.3423.3%588.7220.9%1,152
1627.9512.9%583.1111.0%1,152
1.5639.163.9%571.902.5%1,152

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for AMD

high-beta stocks

MAE: 1.04 pp · n = 5,164,560

0-20%
predicted 3.5% · realized 3.7% · n = 3,484,735
20-40%
predicted 29.6% · realized 29.1% · n = 551,828
40-60%
predicted 50.5% · realized 49.9% · n = 451,182
60-80%
predicted 70.6% · realized 69.8% · n = 527,136
80-100%
predicted 83.0% · realized 82.6% · n = 149,679

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-29629.8439.9%not touched ✗
2026-09-30622.9139.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-01625.6139.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-02648.7939.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-05643.2339.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-06660.4339.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-07647.4339.9%touched ✓
2026-10-08651.2139.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-09639.2539.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-12611.0239.9%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →