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E-mini S&P 500 (ES)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 06:35 ET

last quote 7871.50 · as of 07:00 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-14T10:35:52.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / ES CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 7871.5

ES · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR7888.7270.7%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR7854.2867.2%✓ touched
+0.50 ATR7905.9444.3%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR7837.0644.0%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR7923.1625.0%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR7819.8427.7%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR7940.3814.0%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR7802.6317.1%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR7974.813.4%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR7768.196.4%not touched yet
today's range so far
18.00
high 7874.25 / low 7856.25 · n=28 bars
position in today's range
84.7%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-1.7500
open 7873.25

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

Market closed — levels as of last session.

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — ES

Live hit rate
93%
n = 232
95% confidence interval
89–95%
Wilson interval
All six markets
93%
n = 232
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
ES minus the combined rate, in percentage points
2026-09-09: 8 resolved2026-09-10: 6 resolved2026-09-11: 3 resolved2026-09-14: 3 resolved2026-09-16: 3 resolved2026-09-17: 1 resolved2026-09-18: 15 resolved2026-09-20: 8 resolved2026-09-21: 68 resolved2026-09-23: 1 resolved2026-09-24: 11 resolved2026-09-25: 2 resolved2026-09-29: 5 resolved2026-10-02: 8 resolved2026-10-05: 22 resolved2026-10-06: 22 resolved2026-10-08: 1 resolved2026-10-09: 2 resolved2026-10-11: 9 resolved2026-10-12: 16 resolved2026-10-14: 2 resolved
506070809010068
Sep 09Sep 16Sep 21Sep 29Oct 08Oct 14
ESAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S21222992.6%
A33100.0%
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

E-mini S&P 500
4 up, 1 down
As of 2026-10-14 06:15 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▲7873.507872.387871.250.422%1
30m▲7873.507869.887866.251.293%0
1h▼7873.507867.387861.251.296%4
2h▲7874.007869.507865.000.789%0
4h▲7874.007865.137856.251.094%0

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002011 stated: 86.9%2011 actual: 90.4% (+3.5 pp) -- n = 3,41220112012 stated: 87.4%2012 actual: 87.3% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 2,96920122013 stated: 88.1%2013 actual: 86.7% (-1.5 pp) -- n = 3,31820132014 stated: 87.7%2014 actual: 86.9% (-0.8 pp) -- n = 3,31220142015 stated: 88.2%2015 actual: 88.2% (-0.0 pp) -- n = 3,20020152016 stated: 87.8%2016 actual: 88.3% (+0.5 pp) -- n = 3,54520162017 stated: 88.0%2017 actual: 87.6% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 2,85720172018 stated: 87.9%2018 actual: 90.8% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 4,41320182019 stated: 88.3%2019 actual: 88.7% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 3,61920192020 stated: 88.0%2020 actual: 90.7% (+2.7 pp) -- n = 4,64820202021 stated: 88.9%2021 actual: 90.6% (+1.6 pp) -- n = 4,74020212022 stated: 89.0%2022 actual: 90.0% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 5,24020222023 stated: 88.9%2023 actual: 90.7% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 4,85820232024 stated: 88.9%2024 actual: 90.1% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 5,46020242025 stated: 89.1%2025 actual: 91.2% (+2.2 pp) -- n = 5,11320252026 stated: 89.3%2026 actual: 92.8% (+3.5 pp) -- n = 3,4132026

ES: 89.7% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+1.3 pp) across 64,117 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.261 → narrow (n = 11,464)

narrow < 0.301, typical < 0.665, else wide — based on a partial-session window (28 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / ES INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.132.2%31.3%9,954
0.2512.0%12.2%9,954
0.53.6%4.0%9,954

Measured from the 390-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / ES INSTRUMENT 01

ES · P(touch by close)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close) updown levelP(touch by close) downn
0.257888.7270.7%7854.2867.2%11,524
0.57905.9444.3%7837.0644.0%11,524
0.757923.1625.0%7819.8427.7%11,524
17940.3814.0%7802.6317.1%11,524
1.57974.813.4%7768.196.4%11,524

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 0 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TPSLP(TP first)P(SL first)P(neither)n
0.5 ATR0.25 ATR33.1%63.8%3.1%10,217
0.5 ATR0.5 ATR46.5%43.4%10.2%10,217
1 ATR0.5 ATR21.3%51.0%27.7%10,217

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for E-mini S&P 500

index futures

MAE: 0.73 pp · n = 67,669,080

0-20%
predicted 6.7% · realized 6.6% · n = 33,012,676
20-40%
predicted 28.7% · realized 28.3% · n = 10,690,116
40-60%
predicted 47.0% · realized 46.4% · n = 7,698,743
60-80%
predicted 69.1% · realized 68.5% · n = 9,505,767
80-100%
predicted 85.6% · realized 85.2% · n = 6,761,778

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-307780.2244.3%touched ✓
2026-10-017760.5744.3%touched ✓
2026-10-027765.2744.3%touched ✓
2026-10-057823.5344.3%touched ✓
2026-10-067874.8844.3%touched ✓
2026-10-077922.7944.3%not touched ✗
2026-10-087890.8244.3%not touched ✗
2026-10-097861.6544.3%touched ✓
2026-10-127909.3044.3%not touched ✗
2026-10-137891.9044.3%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

datelevelpredicted poutcomeprice at freezerealized high/low
2026-10-13+0.5 ATR → 7875.2339.7%not touched7847.57861 / 7834.5
2026-10-13-0.5 ATR → 7819.7740.6%not touched7847.57861 / 7834.5
2026-10-12+0.5 ATR → 7894.0739.7%not touched7866.257868 / 7846.25
2026-10-12-0.5 ATR → 7838.4340.6%not touched7866.257868 / 7846.25
2026-10-09+0.5 ATR → 7870.4439.7%touched78417870.5 / 7826.75
2026-10-09-0.5 ATR → 7811.5640.6%not touched78417870.5 / 7826.75
2026-10-08+0.5 ATR → 7854.0939.7%not touched7825.57850 / 7783
2026-10-08-0.5 ATR → 7796.9140.6%touched7825.57850 / 7783
2026-10-07+0.5 ATR → 7869.8039.7%not touched7841.57859.5 / 7815.75
2026-10-07-0.5 ATR → 7813.2040.6%not touched7841.57859.5 / 7815.75
2026-10-06+0.5 ATR → 7892.6539.7%touched7861.257897.5 / 7865.25
2026-10-06-0.5 ATR → 7829.8540.6%not touched7861.257897.5 / 7865.25
2026-10-05+0.5 ATR → 7800.2339.7%touched7769.757847.5 / 7781
2026-10-05-0.5 ATR → 7739.2740.6%not touched7769.757847.5 / 7781
2026-10-02+0.5 ATR → 7832.1739.7%not touched7799.257810.25 / 7754
2026-10-02-0.5 ATR → 7766.3340.6%touched7799.257810.25 / 7754
2026-10-01+0.5 ATR → 7765.7539.7%not touched7734.257741.25 / 7672.75
2026-10-01-0.5 ATR → 7702.7540.6%touched7734.257741.25 / 7672.75
2026-09-30+0.5 ATR → 7791.3839.7%not touched7761.257782 / 7709.25
2026-09-30-0.5 ATR → 7731.1240.6%touched7761.257782 / 7709.25

See all verified findings →