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Amazon (AMZN)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 258.58 · as of 07:01 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-13T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / AMZN CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 258.58

AMZN · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR259.9768.1%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR257.1966.8%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR261.3741.8%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR255.7939.7%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR262.7623.7%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR254.4021.8%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR264.1511.9%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR253.0111.1%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR266.942.8%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR250.222.9%not touched yet
today's range so far
4.4100
high 262.83 / low 258.42 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
3.5%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-1.8050
open 260.39

Live hit rate — AMZN

Live hit rate
74%
n = 31
95% confidence interval
57–86%
Wilson interval
All six markets
74%
n = 31
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
AMZN minus the combined rate, in percentage points
2026-10-08: 5 resolved2026-10-09: 6 resolved2026-10-12: 4 resolved
50607080901006
Oct 08Oct 09Oct 12
AMZNAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S233174.2%
A00—
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Amazon
0 up, 5 down
As of 2026-10-13 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▼259.67259.05258.422.216%0
30m▼259.80259.11258.421.314%0
1h▼259.80259.11258.420.914%0
2h▼259.80259.11258.420.614%0
4h▼260.00259.21258.420.412%0

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002006 stated: 88.0%2006 actual: 86.7% (-1.3 pp) -- n = 1,37920062007 stated: 88.8%2007 actual: 87.1% (-1.7 pp) -- n = 1,12820072008 stated: 88.7%2008 actual: 89.4% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 1,11020082009 stated: 88.7%2009 actual: 88.3% (-0.4 pp) -- n = 1,42520092010 stated: 88.1%2010 actual: 89.1% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 1,24720102011 stated: 88.1%2011 actual: 89.1% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 1,59020112012 stated: 88.1%2012 actual: 89.5% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 1,20220122013 stated: 88.1%2013 actual: 90.4% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 1,26120132014 stated: 88.1%2014 actual: 89.6% (+1.5 pp) -- n = 1,21820142015 stated: 88.0%2015 actual: 90.9% (+3.0 pp) -- n = 1,19320152016 stated: 88.0%2016 actual: 86.2% (-1.8 pp) -- n = 1,54820162017 stated: 88.0%2017 actual: 90.3% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 1,57420172018 stated: 87.9%2018 actual: 90.9% (+3.0 pp) -- n = 2,06820182019 stated: 88.1%2019 actual: 89.9% (+1.7 pp) -- n = 1,44020192020 stated: 88.3%2020 actual: 87.7% (-0.6 pp) -- n = 1,43420202021 stated: 88.7%2021 actual: 91.6% (+2.9 pp) -- n = 1,57120212022 stated: 88.4%2022 actual: 90.6% (+2.2 pp) -- n = 2,07820222023 stated: 88.8%2023 actual: 87.9% (-0.9 pp) -- n = 1,39620232024 stated: 88.8%2024 actual: 90.5% (+1.7 pp) -- n = 1,28220242025 stated: 89.1%2025 actual: 88.3% (-0.8 pp) -- n = 1,06520252026 stated: 89.1%2026 actual: 91.2% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 9752026

AMZN: 89.3% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.0 pp) across 29,184 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / AMZN INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.155.2%60.7%4,354
0.2517.5%22.1%4,354
0.52.9%3.4%4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / AMZN INSTRUMENT 01

AMZN · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25259.9768.1%257.1966.8%4,354
0.5261.3741.8%255.7939.7%4,354
0.75262.7623.7%254.4021.8%4,354
1264.1511.9%253.0111.1%4,354
1.5266.942.8%250.222.9%4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Amazon

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%
predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483
20-40%
predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961
40-60%
predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144
60-80%
predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510
80-100%
predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-29249.4141.8%not touched ✗
2026-09-30249.4041.8%touched ✓
2026-10-01254.3241.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-02254.2241.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-05252.8841.8%touched ✓
2026-10-06256.0141.8%touched ✓
2026-10-07256.8741.8%touched ✓
2026-10-08262.3841.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-09259.2141.8%touched ✓
2026-10-12265.3141.8%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →