Bitcoin (BTCUSDT)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 10:14 ET

last quote 78983.06 · as of 10:22 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-25T14:14:56.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

FOXALGO / BTCUSDT CANDLESTICK

LIVEDATA: BINANCE · REALTIMELAST 78983.06

BTCUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	79575.48	49.4%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	78390.64	48.6%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	80167.91	21.2%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	77798.21	25.0%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	80760.33	11.2%	✓ touched
-0.75 ATR	77205.79	12.7%	not touched yet

today's range so far

3130.89

high 81245.53 / low 78114.64 · n=58 bars

position in today's range

27.7%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+13.89

open 78969.17

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / BTCUSDT INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	41.8%	46.3%	1,700
0.25	11.6%	14.2%	1,700
0.5	2.4%	3.4%	1,700

Measured from the 840-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekday).

FOXALGO / BTCUSDT INSTRUMENT 01

BTCUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekday)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) up	down level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) down	n
0.25	79575.48	49.4%	78390.64	48.7%	1,698
0.5	80167.91	21.2%	77798.21	25.0%	1,698
0.75	80760.33	11.2%	77205.79	12.7%	1,698

Brackets

Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Bitcoin

BTC & ETH

MAE: 1.70 pp · n = 117,041,556

0-20%

predicted 7.2% · realized 7.3% · n = 66,230,312

20-40%

predicted 28.8% · realized 29.1% · n = 17,806,800

40-60%

predicted 50.9% · realized 50.8% · n = 14,889,502

60-80%

predicted 71.8% · realized 70.9% · n = 14,133,812

80-100%

predicted 81.8% · realized 81.2% · n = 3,981,130

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-15	63517.01	29.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-16	63545.00	29.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-17	63329.99	37.9%	touched ✓
2026-08-18	65019.53	37.9%	not touched ✗
2026-08-19	65186.56	37.9%	touched ✓
2026-08-20	69944.81	37.9%	touched ✓
2026-08-21	73838.58	37.9%	touched ✓
2026-08-22	79327.01	29.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-23	78146.27	29.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-24	78872.58	37.9%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →