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Gold (GC)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 06:35 ET

last quote 4164.40 · as of 07:00 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-14T10:35:48.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / GC CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 4164.4

GC · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR4183.7073.9%✓ touched
-0.25 ATR4145.1073.0%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR4203.0050.4%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR4125.8049.0%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR4222.3132.1%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR4106.4932.3%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR4241.6120.0%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR4087.1920.9%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR4280.218.0%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR4048.598.3%not touched yet
today's range so far
27.80
high 4190.40 / low 4162.60 · n=28 bars
position in today's range
6.5%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-21.10
open 4185.50

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

Market closed — levels as of last session.

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — GC

Live hit rate
96%
n = 94
95% confidence interval
90–98%
Wilson interval
All six markets
96%
n = 94
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
GC minus the combined rate, in percentage points
2026-09-08: 6 resolved2026-09-10: 4 resolved2026-09-14: 2 resolved2026-09-16: 6 resolved2026-09-18: 8 resolved2026-09-22: 2 resolved2026-09-23: 2 resolved2026-09-24: 10 resolved2026-09-25: 1 resolved2026-09-28: 4 resolved2026-09-29: 1 resolved2026-10-02: 4 resolved2026-10-06: 11 resolved2026-10-08: 2 resolved2026-10-09: 8 resolved2026-10-11: 3 resolved2026-10-13: 4 resolved
506070809010011
Sep 08Sep 16Sep 23Sep 29Oct 08Oct 13
GCAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S889295.7%
A22100.0%
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Gold
0 up, 5 down
As of 2026-10-14 06:15 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▼4168.304166.154164.000.758%3
30m▼4173.904168.804163.701.029%2
1h▼4180.904172.304163.701.417%1
2h▼4180.904172.304163.701.117%0
4h▼4186.504175.104163.701.013%0

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002011 stated: 86.9%2011 actual: 90.8% (+3.9 pp) -- n = 1,98520112012 stated: 87.3%2012 actual: 89.2% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 1,66120122013 stated: 87.8%2013 actual: 85.9% (-1.9 pp) -- n = 1,24420132014 stated: 87.5%2014 actual: 87.6% (+0.2 pp) -- n = 1,03520142015 stated: 87.3%2015 actual: 89.4% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 1,32820152016 stated: 87.8%2016 actual: 91.3% (+3.5 pp) -- n = 1,86020162017 stated: 88.0%2017 actual: 90.7% (+2.7 pp) -- n = 2,27520172018 stated: 87.8%2018 actual: 90.1% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 2,23120182019 stated: 87.8%2019 actual: 88.5% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 2,65920192020 stated: 88.2%2020 actual: 91.5% (+3.3 pp) -- n = 2,10220202021 stated: 88.5%2021 actual: 90.6% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 2,62120212022 stated: 88.8%2022 actual: 86.8% (-1.9 pp) -- n = 3,01320222023 stated: 88.7%2023 actual: 91.4% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 3,00220232024 stated: 88.9%2024 actual: 90.4% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 3,09320242025 stated: 88.7%2025 actual: 93.4% (+4.7 pp) -- n = 4,20420252026 stated: 88.7%2026 actual: 94.5% (+5.8 pp) -- n = 2,1462026

GC: 90.5% actual vs. 88.2% stated (+2.3 pp) across 36,459 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.360 → narrow (n = 9,576)

narrow < 0.477, typical < 0.717, else wide — based on a partial-session window (28 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.138.4%38.0%9,050
0.258.6%8.4%9,050
0.51.3%1.5%9,050

Measured from the 390-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 01

GC · P(touch by close)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close) updown levelP(touch by close) downn
0.254183.7073.9%4145.1073.0%9,545
0.54203.0050.4%4125.8049.0%9,545
0.754222.3132.1%4106.4932.3%9,545
14241.6120.0%4087.1920.9%9,545
1.54280.218.0%4048.598.3%9,545

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 0 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TPSLP(TP first)P(SL first)P(neither)n
0.5 ATR0.25 ATR33.0%66.4%0.6%9,071
0.5 ATR0.5 ATR47.9%48.1%4.0%9,071
1 ATR0.5 ATR23.8%59.3%16.9%9,071

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Gold

metals futures

MAE: 0.82 pp · n = 48,462,204

0-20%
predicted 6.5% · realized 6.4% · n = 21,292,093
20-40%
predicted 28.8% · realized 29.3% · n = 9,418,069
40-60%
predicted 49.9% · realized 50.2% · n = 6,145,385
60-80%
predicted 71.5% · realized 71.6% · n = 6,425,146
80-100%
predicted 87.1% · realized 87.3% · n = 5,181,511

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-304265.0150.4%not touched ✗
2026-10-014237.0550.4%not touched ✗
2026-10-024249.4650.4%touched ✓
2026-10-054213.8750.4%not touched ✗
2026-10-064213.3950.4%not touched ✗
2026-10-074237.1150.4%not touched ✗
2026-10-084181.2250.4%not touched ✗
2026-10-094200.1350.4%touched ✓
2026-10-124261.6950.4%not touched ✗
2026-10-134235.5950.4%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

datelevelpredicted poutcomeprice at freezerealized high/low
2026-10-13+0.5 ATR → 4219.2738.4%not touched4198.54203.60009765625 / 4169.7001953125
2026-10-13-0.5 ATR → 4177.7339.7%touched4198.54203.60009765625 / 4169.7001953125
2026-10-12+0.5 ATR → 4214.1438.4%not touched4191.94199.2998046875 / 4182.5
2026-10-12-0.5 ATR → 4169.6639.7%not touched4191.94199.2998046875 / 4182.5
2026-10-09+0.5 ATR → 4222.7338.4%touched4199.84227.7998046875 / 4205
2026-10-09-0.5 ATR → 4176.8739.7%not touched4199.84227.7998046875 / 4205
2026-10-08+0.5 ATR → 4168.0938.4%touched4144.74170.7001953125 / 4129.2001953125
2026-10-08-0.5 ATR → 4121.3139.7%not touched4144.74170.7001953125 / 4129.2001953125
2026-10-07+0.5 ATR → 4139.3838.4%touched4116.24153.2001953125 / 4114.89990234375
2026-10-07-0.5 ATR → 4093.0239.7%not touched4116.24153.2001953125 / 4114.89990234375
2026-10-06+0.5 ATR → 4224.4838.4%not touched4197.84212.39990234375 / 4170.60009765625
2026-10-06-0.5 ATR → 4171.1239.7%touched4197.84212.39990234375 / 4170.60009765625
2026-10-05+0.5 ATR → 4207.5038.4%not touched4180.64176.60009765625 / 4150.39990234375
2026-10-05-0.5 ATR → 4153.7039.7%touched4180.64176.60009765625 / 4150.39990234375
2026-10-02+0.5 ATR → 4270.4938.4%not touched4244.44226.60009765625 / 4153.7998046875
2026-10-02-0.5 ATR → 4218.3139.7%touched4244.44226.60009765625 / 4153.7998046875
2026-10-01+0.5 ATR → 4232.8738.4%not touched42064217.60009765625 / 4179.5
2026-10-01-0.5 ATR → 4179.1339.7%not touched42064217.60009765625 / 4179.5
2026-09-30+0.5 ATR → 4267.9338.4%not touched4240.54216.5 / 4178.2001953125
2026-09-30-0.5 ATR → 4213.0739.7%touched4240.54216.5 / 4178.2001953125

See all verified findings →