foxalgo.io

Gold (GC)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 10:05 ET

last quote 4674.50 · as of 10:19 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-25T14:05:00.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / GC CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 4674.5

GC · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR4696.6662.3%✓ touched
-0.25 ATR4652.3460.1%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR4718.8135.5%✓ touched
-0.50 ATR4630.1935.0%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR4740.9719.0%✓ touched
-0.75 ATR4608.0319.0%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR4763.1310.1%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR4585.8710.2%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR4807.443.0%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR4541.563.6%not touched yet
today's range so far
50.10
high 4709.60 / low 4659.50 · n=42 bars
position in today's range
29.9%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-14.90
open 4689.40

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.565 → narrow (n = 9,576)

narrow < 0.662, typical < 0.974, else wide — based on a partial-session window (42 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.155.0%58.4%9,533
0.2519.4%22.7%9,533
0.53.8%4.7%9,533

Measured from the 600-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 01

GC · P(touch by close)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close) updown levelP(touch by close) downn
0.254696.6662.3%4652.3460.1%9,624
0.54718.8135.5%4630.1935.1%9,624
0.754740.9719.0%4608.0319.0%9,624
14763.1310.1%4585.8710.2%9,624
1.54807.443.0%4541.563.6%9,624

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 30 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TPSLP(TP first)P(SL first)P(neither)n
0.5 ATR0.25 ATR32.5%66.8%0.7%8,482
0.5 ATR0.5 ATR46.8%49.3%3.9%8,482
1 ATR0.5 ATR23.2%59.8%17.1%8,482

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Gold

metals futures

MAE: 0.82 pp · n = 48,462,204

0-20%
predicted 6.5% · realized 6.4% · n = 21,292,093
20-40%
predicted 28.8% · realized 29.3% · n = 9,418,069
40-60%
predicted 49.9% · realized 50.2% · n = 6,145,385
60-80%
predicted 71.5% · realized 71.6% · n = 6,425,146
80-100%
predicted 87.1% · realized 87.3% · n = 5,181,511

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-08-114444.9635.5%not touched ✗
2026-08-124441.6435.5%not touched ✗
2026-08-134436.8835.5%touched ✓
2026-08-144358.1135.5%touched ✓
2026-08-174432.3035.5%not touched ✗
2026-08-184452.6835.5%not touched ✗
2026-08-194380.3135.5%touched ✓
2026-08-204551.1235.5%not touched ✗
2026-08-214603.0335.5%touched ✓
2026-08-244682.8535.5%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

datelevelpredicted poutcomeprice at freezerealized high/low
2026-08-25+0.5 ATR → 4717.9338.4%pending4689.7—
2026-08-25-0.5 ATR → 4661.4739.7%pending4689.7—
2026-08-24+0.5 ATR → 4751.9638.4%not touched4724.64737 / 4681.2001953125
2026-08-24-0.5 ATR → 4697.2439.7%touched4724.64737 / 4681.2001953125
2026-08-21+0.5 ATR → 4664.3638.4%touched4637.84690.39990234375 / 4633.7998046875
2026-08-21-0.5 ATR → 4611.2439.7%not touched4637.84690.39990234375 / 4633.7998046875
2026-08-20+0.5 ATR → 4558.0238.4%touched4532.84597.10009765625 / 4534.2998046875
2026-08-20-0.5 ATR → 4507.5839.7%not touched4532.84597.10009765625 / 4534.2998046875
2026-08-19+0.5 ATR → 4510.3438.4%touched4485.94569.60009765625 / 4502.39990234375
2026-08-19-0.5 ATR → 4461.4639.7%not touched4485.94569.60009765625 / 4502.39990234375
2026-08-18+0.5 ATR → 4471.8038.4%not touched4445.54463 / 4392.2998046875
2026-08-18-0.5 ATR → 4419.2039.7%touched4445.54463 / 4392.2998046875
2026-08-17+0.5 ATR → 4468.7738.4%touched4442.79980468754486.5 / 4440.89990234375
2026-08-17-0.5 ATR → 4416.8339.7%not touched4442.79980468754486.5 / 4440.89990234375
2026-08-14+0.5 ATR → 4467.7338.4%not touched4441.70019531254454.60009765625 / 4427.5
2026-08-14-0.5 ATR → 4415.6839.7%not touched4441.70019531254454.60009765625 / 4427.5
2026-08-13+0.5 ATR → 4467.4338.4%not touched4441.70019531254446.39990234375 / 4400
2026-08-13-0.5 ATR → 4415.9739.7%touched4441.70019531254446.39990234375 / 4400
2026-08-12+0.5 ATR → 4503.5538.4%not touched4478.399902343754499.7998046875 / 4455.89990234375
2026-08-12-0.5 ATR → 4453.2539.7%not touched4478.399902343754499.7998046875 / 4455.89990234375

See all verified findings →