E-mini Dow (YM)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 11:05 ET

last quote 53518.00 · as of 11:21 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-25T15:05:00.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / YM CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 53518

YM · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

Prior Day High/Low Prior Week High/Low Prior Month High/Low

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	53628.50	58.4%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	53407.50	51.6%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	53739.00	27.9%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	53297.00	27.9%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	53849.50	12.0%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	53186.50	15.1%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	53960.00	5.1%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	53076.00	7.7%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	54181.00	1.2%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	52855.00	2.5%	not touched yet

today's range so far

371.00

high 53797.00 / low 53426.00 · n=46 bars

position in today's range

24.8%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+34.00

open 53484.00

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.839 → typical (n = 11,467)

narrow < 0.469, typical < 0.893, else wide — based on a partial-session window (46 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / YM INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	41.1%	38.3%	11,279
0.25	8.9%	9.9%	11,279
0.5	1.3%	1.8%	11,279

Measured from the 660-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / YM INSTRUMENT 01

YM · P(touch by close)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close) up	down level	P(touch by close) down	n
0.25	53628.50	58.4%	53407.50	51.6%	11,653
0.5	53739.00	27.9%	53297.00	27.9%	11,653
0.75	53849.50	12.0%	53186.50	15.1%	11,653
1	53960.00	5.1%	53076.00	7.7%	11,653
1.5	54181.00	1.2%	52855.00	2.5%	11,653

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 90 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TP	SL	P(TP first)	P(SL first)	P(neither)	n
0.5 ATR	0.25 ATR	34.6%	62.4%	3.0%	9,954
0.5 ATR	0.5 ATR	46.7%	43.4%	10.0%	9,954
1 ATR	0.5 ATR	21.9%	51.2%	26.9%	9,954

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for E-mini Dow

index futures

MAE: 0.73 pp · n = 67,669,080

0-20%

predicted 6.7% · realized 6.6% · n = 33,012,676

20-40%

predicted 28.7% · realized 28.3% · n = 10,690,116

40-60%

predicted 47.0% · realized 46.4% · n = 7,698,743

60-80%

predicted 69.1% · realized 68.5% · n = 9,505,767

80-100%

predicted 85.6% · realized 85.2% · n = 6,761,778

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-11	54399.86	27.9%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	54254.64	27.9%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	54239.68	27.9%	not touched ✗
2026-08-14	54294.46	27.9%	not touched ✗
2026-08-17	54108.75	27.9%	not touched ✗
2026-08-18	53804.07	27.9%	not touched ✗
2026-08-19	53671.07	27.9%	touched ✓
2026-08-20	53781.04	27.9%	not touched ✗
2026-08-21	53132.64	27.9%	touched ✓
2026-08-24	53616.54	27.9%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

date	level	predicted p	outcome	price at freeze	realized high/low
2026-08-25	+0.5 ATR → 53909.79	39.7%	pending	53724	—
2026-08-25	-0.5 ATR → 53538.21	40.6%	pending	53724	—
2026-08-24	+0.5 ATR → 53488.79	39.7%	touched	53303	53567 / 53371
2026-08-24	-0.5 ATR → 53117.21	40.6%	not touched	53303	53567 / 53371
2026-08-21	+0.5 ATR → 53367.25	39.7%	touched	53183	53418 / 53132
2026-08-21	-0.5 ATR → 52998.75	40.6%	not touched	53183	53418 / 53132
2026-08-20	+0.5 ATR → 53323.93	39.7%	not touched	53133	53288 / 52827
2026-08-20	-0.5 ATR → 52942.07	40.6%	touched	53133	53288 / 52827
2026-08-19	+0.5 ATR → 53851.61	39.7%	not touched	53650	53780 / 53481
2026-08-19	-0.5 ATR → 53448.39	40.6%	not touched	53650	53780 / 53481
2026-08-18	+0.5 ATR → 53674.96	39.7%	not touched	53451	53541 / 53311
2026-08-18	-0.5 ATR → 53227.04	40.6%	not touched	53451	53541 / 53311
2026-08-17	+0.5 ATR → 53801.32	39.7%	not touched	53569	53719 / 53464
2026-08-17	-0.5 ATR → 53336.68	40.6%	not touched	53569	53719 / 53464
2026-08-14	+0.5 ATR → 54111.82	39.7%	not touched	53865	53956 / 53745
2026-08-14	-0.5 ATR → 53618.18	40.6%	not touched	53865	53956 / 53745
2026-08-13	+0.5 ATR → 54269.96	39.7%	not touched	54023	54149 / 53715
2026-08-13	-0.5 ATR → 53776.04	40.6%	touched	54023	54149 / 53715
2026-08-12	+0.5 ATR → 54302.04	39.7%	not touched	54051	54081 / 53830
2026-08-12	-0.5 ATR → 53799.96	40.6%	not touched	54051	54081 / 53830

See all verified findings →