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Microsoft (MSFT)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 543.45 · as of 07:00 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-13T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / MSFT CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 543.45

MSFT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR546.5068.1%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR540.4066.8%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR549.5541.8%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR537.3539.7%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR552.6023.7%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR534.3021.8%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR555.6611.9%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR531.2411.1%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR561.762.8%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR525.142.9%not touched yet
today's range so far
8.0900
high 551.15 / low 543.06 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
4.8%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-1.1750
open 544.63

Live hit rate — MSFT

Live hit rate
100%
n = 1
95% confidence interval
21–100%
Wilson interval
All six markets
100%
n = 1
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
MSFT minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S11100.0%
A00—
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Microsoft
0 up, 5 down
As of 2026-10-13 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▼544.97544.02543.061.531%0
30m▼546.08544.57543.061.520%0
1h▼546.08544.57543.061.120%0
2h▼546.08544.57543.060.820%0
4h▼547.50545.28543.060.714%0

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002006 stated: 88.1%2006 actual: 90.9% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 1,02320062007 stated: 88.8%2007 actual: 86.4% (-2.4 pp) -- n = 1,20920072008 stated: 88.6%2008 actual: 91.4% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 1,28520082009 stated: 88.6%2009 actual: 88.6% (+0.0 pp) -- n = 1,42620092010 stated: 88.1%2010 actual: 88.6% (+0.5 pp) -- n = 1,12120102011 stated: 88.1%2011 actual: 89.3% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 1,46720112012 stated: 88.3%2012 actual: 90.9% (+2.6 pp) -- n = 1,42520122013 stated: 88.0%2013 actual: 87.6% (-0.4 pp) -- n = 1,19520132014 stated: 88.0%2014 actual: 89.3% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 1,16820142015 stated: 88.0%2015 actual: 91.0% (+3.0 pp) -- n = 1,38420152016 stated: 88.0%2016 actual: 89.1% (+1.1 pp) -- n = 1,24620162017 stated: 88.0%2017 actual: 91.6% (+3.6 pp) -- n = 1,16620172018 stated: 88.1%2018 actual: 89.4% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 1,38220182019 stated: 88.2%2019 actual: 89.0% (+0.8 pp) -- n = 1,21720192020 stated: 88.2%2020 actual: 89.5% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 1,52120202021 stated: 88.6%2021 actual: 89.1% (+0.5 pp) -- n = 1,56520212022 stated: 88.4%2022 actual: 86.5% (-1.9 pp) -- n = 1,81220222023 stated: 88.7%2023 actual: 87.3% (-1.4 pp) -- n = 1,51420232024 stated: 88.8%2024 actual: 88.8% (-0.0 pp) -- n = 1,44120242025 stated: 88.9%2025 actual: 90.1% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 1,12820252026 stated: 88.9%2026 actual: 91.5% (+2.6 pp) -- n = 1,2722026

MSFT: 89.3% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.9 pp) across 27,967 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / MSFT INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.155.2%60.7%4,354
0.2517.5%22.1%4,354
0.52.9%3.4%4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / MSFT INSTRUMENT 01

MSFT · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25546.5068.1%540.4066.8%4,354
0.5549.5541.8%537.3539.7%4,354
0.75552.6023.7%534.3021.8%4,354
1555.6611.9%531.2411.1%4,354
1.5561.762.8%525.142.9%4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Microsoft

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%
predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483
20-40%
predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961
40-60%
predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144
60-80%
predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510
80-100%
predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-29513.9441.8%not touched ✗
2026-09-30517.4841.8%touched ✓
2026-10-01525.8341.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-02525.4941.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-05527.5441.8%touched ✓
2026-10-06537.7641.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-07536.8441.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-08535.7741.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-09534.4541.8%touched ✓
2026-10-12543.8941.8%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →