Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOGL)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 353.78 · as of 07:01 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-13T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / GOOGL CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 353.78

GOOGL · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	355.80	68.1%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	351.76	66.8%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	357.83	41.8%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	349.73	39.7%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	359.85	23.7%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	347.71	21.8%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	361.88	11.9%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	345.68	11.1%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	365.92	2.8%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	341.64	2.9%	not touched yet

today's range so far

6.9800

high 358.58 / low 351.60 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

31.2%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-2.5200

open 356.30

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

3 up, 2 down

As of 2026-10-13 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▼	357.14	354.86	352.58	3.9	26%	23
30m	▼	357.14	354.37	351.60	2.9	39%	11
1h	▲	356.75	354.99	353.23	1.4	15%	5
2h	▲	358.58	355.09	351.60	2.2	31%	3
4h	▲	358.58	355.09	351.60	1.4	31%	1

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

GOOGL: 89.1% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.8 pp) across 17,803 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / GOOGL INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / GOOGL INSTRUMENT 01

GOOGL · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	355.80	68.1%	351.76	66.8%	4,354
0.5	357.83	41.8%	349.73	39.7%	4,354
0.75	359.85	23.7%	347.71	21.8%	4,354
1	361.88	11.9%	345.68	11.1%	4,354
1.5	365.92	2.8%	341.64	2.9%	4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Alphabet (GOOGL)

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%

predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483

20-40%

predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961

40-60%

predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144

60-80%

predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510

80-100%

predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-09-29	346.39	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-09-30	348.39	41.8%	touched ✓
2026-10-01	355.25	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-10-02	346.05	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-10-05	347.18	41.8%	touched ✓
2026-10-06	351.92	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-10-07	351.15	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-10-08	357.61	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-10-09	355.81	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-10-12	356.19	41.8%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →