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Meta Platforms (META)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 762.50 · as of 07:00 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-13T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / META CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 762.5

META · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR768.1168.1%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR756.8966.8%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR773.7341.8%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR751.2739.7%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR779.3423.7%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR745.6621.8%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR784.9611.9%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR740.0411.1%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR796.192.8%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR728.812.9%not touched yet
today's range so far
36.43
high 771.27 / low 734.84 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
75.9%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
+26.41
open 736.09

Live hit rate — META

Live hit rate
67%
n = 6
95% confidence interval
30–90%
Wilson interval
All six markets
67%
n = 6
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
META minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S4666.7%
A00—
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Meta Platforms
5 up, 0 down
As of 2026-10-13 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▲771.27760.96750.656.657%24
30m▲771.27753.05734.844.976%12
1h▲771.27753.05734.844.376%6
2h▲771.27753.05734.843.776%3
4h▲771.27753.05734.842.976%1

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002012 stated: 87.9%2012 actual: 90.5% (+2.6 pp) -- n = 81920122013 stated: 88.0%2013 actual: 88.8% (+0.8 pp) -- n = 1,46820132014 stated: 87.9%2014 actual: 89.6% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 1,34220142015 stated: 88.1%2015 actual: 91.6% (+3.5 pp) -- n = 1,25520152016 stated: 88.0%2016 actual: 91.5% (+3.6 pp) -- n = 1,25120162017 stated: 88.0%2017 actual: 87.9% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 1,32220172018 stated: 88.3%2018 actual: 90.7% (+2.5 pp) -- n = 1,45520182019 stated: 88.3%2019 actual: 90.0% (+1.7 pp) -- n = 99020192020 stated: 88.5%2020 actual: 90.6% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 1,42620202021 stated: 88.8%2021 actual: 89.4% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 1,20020212022 stated: 88.4%2022 actual: 90.8% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 2,22820222023 stated: 88.5%2023 actual: 91.9% (+3.4 pp) -- n = 1,25420232024 stated: 88.8%2024 actual: 89.4% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 1,15720242025 stated: 89.1%2025 actual: 89.8% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 1,09620252026 stated: 89.2%2026 actual: 91.4% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 9252026

META: 90.3% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+1.9 pp) across 19,188 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / META INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.155.2%60.7%4,354
0.2517.5%22.1%4,354
0.52.9%3.4%4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / META INSTRUMENT 01

META · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25768.1168.1%756.8966.8%4,354
0.5773.7341.8%751.2739.7%4,354
0.75779.3423.7%745.6621.8%4,354
1784.9611.9%740.0411.1%4,354
1.5796.192.8%728.812.9%4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Meta Platforms

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%
predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483
20-40%
predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961
40-60%
predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144
60-80%
predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510
80-100%
predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-29740.6341.8%not touched ✗
2026-09-30745.2241.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-01743.3441.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-02747.8641.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-05742.1541.8%touched ✓
2026-10-06761.0641.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-07752.4741.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-08738.8141.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-09740.2141.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-12739.5041.8%touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →