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E-mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 06:50 ET

last quote 30761.25 · as of 07:01 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-14T10:50:48.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / NQ CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 30761.25

NQ · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR30869.8170.7%✓ touched
-0.25 ATR30652.6967.2%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR30978.3844.3%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR30544.1344.0%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR31086.9425.0%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR30435.5627.7%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR31195.5014.0%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR30327.0017.1%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR31412.633.4%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR30109.886.4%not touched yet
today's range so far
183.50
high 30888.75 / low 30705.25 · n=29 bars
position in today's range
30.5%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-122.00
open 30883.25

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

Market closed — levels as of last session.

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — NQ

Live hit rate
94%
n = 316
95% confidence interval
90–96%
Wilson interval
All six markets
94%
n = 316
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
NQ minus the combined rate, in percentage points
2026-09-04: 21 resolved2026-09-08: 3 resolved2026-09-09: 1 resolved2026-09-10: 7 resolved2026-09-13: 2 resolved2026-09-14: 25 resolved2026-09-17: 21 resolved2026-09-18: 14 resolved2026-09-20: 15 resolved2026-09-21: 74 resolved2026-09-22: 34 resolved2026-09-23: 5 resolved2026-09-24: 7 resolved2026-09-25: 5 resolved2026-09-29: 1 resolved2026-09-30: 1 resolved2026-10-01: 11 resolved2026-10-02: 6 resolved2026-10-05: 16 resolved2026-10-06: 16 resolved2026-10-07: 2 resolved2026-10-08: 1 resolved2026-10-12: 14 resolved2026-10-13: 3 resolved2026-10-14: 2 resolved
506070809010074
Sep 04Sep 14Sep 22Sep 29Oct 06Oct 14
NQAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S29331393.6%
A33100.0%
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

E-mini Nasdaq 100
0 up, 5 down
As of 2026-10-14 06:15 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▼30808.5030776.8830745.251.667%3
30m▼30808.5030776.8830745.251.277%1
1h▼30870.5030808.1330745.751.538%4
2h▼30888.7530817.2530745.751.334%2
4h▼30906.0030779.0030652.001.856%8

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002011 stated: 87.1%2011 actual: 88.1% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 3,90920112012 stated: 87.5%2012 actual: 88.1% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 3,91120122013 stated: 87.7%2013 actual: 86.6% (-1.1 pp) -- n = 3,77220132014 stated: 87.6%2014 actual: 88.0% (+0.3 pp) -- n = 4,30820142015 stated: 87.8%2015 actual: 89.3% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 4,18720152016 stated: 87.6%2016 actual: 88.0% (+0.5 pp) -- n = 4,25020162017 stated: 87.8%2017 actual: 88.1% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 4,20520172018 stated: 87.9%2018 actual: 90.3% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 4,96720182019 stated: 88.4%2019 actual: 90.2% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 3,73920192020 stated: 88.1%2020 actual: 90.4% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 5,20520202021 stated: 88.9%2021 actual: 89.5% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 4,83520212022 stated: 89.3%2022 actual: 90.2% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 5,04220222023 stated: 89.0%2023 actual: 90.2% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 4,95820232024 stated: 89.0%2024 actual: 91.0% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 5,52820242025 stated: 88.8%2025 actual: 92.7% (+3.8 pp) -- n = 5,19320252026 stated: 89.2%2026 actual: 92.9% (+3.7 pp) -- n = 3,7432026

NQ: 89.7% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.4 pp) across 71,752 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.423 → typical (n = 11,465)

narrow < 0.304, typical < 0.673, else wide — based on a partial-session window (29 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / NQ INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.133.0%32.7%10,289
0.2511.4%11.8%10,289
0.52.9%4.2%10,289

Measured from the 420-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / NQ INSTRUMENT 01

NQ · P(touch by close)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close) updown levelP(touch by close) downn
0.2530869.8170.7%30652.6967.2%11,524
0.530978.3844.3%30544.1344.0%11,524
0.7531086.9425.0%30435.5627.7%11,524
131195.5014.0%30327.0017.1%11,524
1.531412.633.4%30109.886.4%11,524

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 0 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TPSLP(TP first)P(SL first)P(neither)n
0.5 ATR0.25 ATR33.1%63.8%3.1%10,217
0.5 ATR0.5 ATR46.5%43.4%10.2%10,217
1 ATR0.5 ATR21.3%51.0%27.7%10,217

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for E-mini Nasdaq 100

index futures

MAE: 0.73 pp · n = 67,669,080

0-20%
predicted 6.7% · realized 6.6% · n = 33,012,676
20-40%
predicted 28.7% · realized 28.3% · n = 10,690,116
40-60%
predicted 47.0% · realized 46.4% · n = 7,698,743
60-80%
predicted 69.1% · realized 68.5% · n = 9,505,767
80-100%
predicted 85.6% · realized 85.2% · n = 6,761,778

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-3030904.0444.3%touched ✓
2026-10-0130951.2444.3%touched ✓
2026-10-0231021.3044.3%touched ✓
2026-10-0531307.3244.3%touched ✓
2026-10-0631599.7944.3%touched ✓
2026-10-0731756.5744.3%not touched ✗
2026-10-0831643.7644.3%not touched ✗
2026-10-0931274.1744.3%not touched ✗
2026-10-1231365.7644.3%not touched ✗
2026-10-1331098.0344.3%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

datelevelpredicted poutcomeprice at freezerealized high/low
2026-10-13+0.5 ATR → 30789.7039.7%touched30639.530814.75 / 30635.5
2026-10-13-0.5 ATR → 30489.3040.6%not touched30639.530814.75 / 30635.5
2026-10-12+0.5 ATR → 31238.6839.7%not touched3108531007 / 30844.25
2026-10-12-0.5 ATR → 30931.3240.6%touched3108531007 / 30844.25
2026-10-09+0.5 ATR → 31358.5139.7%not touched31188.531145.25 / 30991
2026-10-09-0.5 ATR → 31018.4940.6%touched31188.531145.25 / 30991
2026-10-08+0.5 ATR → 31381.8239.7%not touched31222.531369.75 / 30792
2026-10-08-0.5 ATR → 31063.1840.6%touched31222.531369.75 / 30792
2026-10-07+0.5 ATR → 31412.0439.7%touched3125631422.25 / 31143
2026-10-07-0.5 ATR → 31099.9640.6%not touched3125631422.25 / 31143
2026-10-06+0.5 ATR → 31678.6239.7%not touched31510.531616.5 / 31467.75
2026-10-06-0.5 ATR → 31342.3840.6%not touched31510.531616.5 / 31467.75
2026-10-05+0.5 ATR → 31160.2339.7%touched3099531371 / 31115
2026-10-05-0.5 ATR → 30829.7740.6%not touched3099531371 / 31115
2026-10-02+0.5 ATR → 31381.1339.7%not touched31200.531282.5 / 30988
2026-10-02-0.5 ATR → 31019.8740.6%touched31200.531282.5 / 30988
2026-10-01+0.5 ATR → 30993.9039.7%not touched3082030883.5 / 30529.25
2026-10-01-0.5 ATR → 30646.1040.6%touched3082030883.5 / 30529.25
2026-09-30+0.5 ATR → 30923.6339.7%not touched3075030906 / 30680.75
2026-09-30-0.5 ATR → 30576.3840.6%not touched3075030906 / 30680.75

See all verified findings →