foxalgoTesla (TSLA)
last quote 351.86 · as of 11:19 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-25T15:15:00.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.
TSLA · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 354.85 | 54.0% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 348.87 | 50.3% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 357.84 | 22.5% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 345.88 | 20.5% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 360.82 | 7.5% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 342.90 | 7.1% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 363.81 | 3.3% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 339.91 | 2.0% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 369.79 | 0.5% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 333.93 | 0.3% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 63.1% | 60.4% | 1,152 |
| 0.25 | 23.5% | 23.5% | 1,152 |
| 0.5 | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1,152 |
Measured from the 90-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).
TSLA · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up | down level | P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 354.85 | 54.0% | 348.87 | 50.3% | 1,152 |
| 0.5 | 357.84 | 22.5% | 345.88 | 20.5% | 1,152 |
| 0.75 | 360.82 | 7.5% | 342.90 | 7.1% | 1,152 |
| 1 | 363.81 | 3.3% | 339.91 | 2.0% | 1,152 |
| 1.5 | 369.79 | 0.5% | 333.93 | 0.3% | 1,152 |
Brackets
Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for Tesla
high-beta stocks
MAE: 1.04 pp · n = 5,164,560
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 339.96 | 22.5% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | 342.14 | 22.5% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | 332.69 | 22.5% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 347.81 | 22.5% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-17 | 346.29 | 22.5% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-18 | 338.73 | 22.5% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-19 | 344.32 | 22.5% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-20 | 351.75 | 22.5% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-21 | 355.38 | 22.5% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-24 | 367.16 | 22.5% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.