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Tesla (TSLA)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 375.23 · as of 07:01 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-13T20:00:00.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / TSLA CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 375.23

TSLA · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR377.9466.7%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR372.5269.6%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR380.6639.9%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR369.8041.1%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR383.3723.3%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR367.0920.9%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR386.0912.9%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR364.3711.0%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR391.513.9%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR358.952.5%not touched yet
today's range so far
5.7500
high 377.05 / low 371.30 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
68.3%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
+3.0580
open 372.17

Live hit rate — TSLA

Live hit rate
82%
n = 11
95% confidence interval
52–95%
Wilson interval
All six markets
82%
n = 11
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
TSLA minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S91181.8%
A00—
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Tesla
1 up, 4 down
As of 2026-10-13 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▲375.83375.23374.631.351%1
30m▼375.38374.45373.511.492%3
1h▼375.53374.52373.510.886%2
2h▼376.84374.07371.301.671%3
4h▼376.98374.14371.301.069%1

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002010 stated: 88.0%2010 actual: 85.2% (-2.8 pp) -- n = 61420102011 stated: 88.0%2011 actual: 84.5% (-3.5 pp) -- n = 1,16820112012 stated: 88.0%2012 actual: 80.1% (-7.8 pp) -- n = 1,29720122013 stated: 88.2%2013 actual: 89.4% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 1,09720132014 stated: 88.2%2014 actual: 88.2% (-0.0 pp) -- n = 93020142015 stated: 88.3%2015 actual: 84.8% (-3.4 pp) -- n = 87020152016 stated: 87.8%2016 actual: 90.0% (+2.2 pp) -- n = 1,31820162017 stated: 88.0%2017 actual: 91.8% (+3.8 pp) -- n = 1,34120172018 stated: 88.2%2018 actual: 90.0% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 1,23220182019 stated: 88.4%2019 actual: 89.3% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 1,29720192020 stated: 88.3%2020 actual: 90.0% (+1.7 pp) -- n = 1,34820202021 stated: 88.8%2021 actual: 92.1% (+3.3 pp) -- n = 1,18320212022 stated: 88.6%2022 actual: 90.6% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 1,86320222023 stated: 88.6%2023 actual: 89.9% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 81820232024 stated: 88.7%2024 actual: 89.4% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 1,21920242025 stated: 88.9%2025 actual: 90.8% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 1,09820252026 stated: 89.4%2026 actual: 89.4% (+0.0 pp) -- n = 9782026

TSLA: 88.8% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.4 pp) across 19,671 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / TSLA INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.148.9%59.9%1,152
0.2513.9%18.3%1,152
0.52.2%1.8%1,152

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / TSLA INSTRUMENT 01

TSLA · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25377.9466.7%372.5269.6%1,152
0.5380.6639.9%369.8041.1%1,152
0.75383.3723.3%367.0920.9%1,152
1386.0912.9%364.3711.0%1,152
1.5391.513.9%358.952.5%1,152

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Tesla

high-beta stocks

MAE: 1.04 pp · n = 5,164,560

0-20%
predicted 3.5% · realized 3.7% · n = 3,484,735
20-40%
predicted 29.6% · realized 29.1% · n = 551,828
40-60%
predicted 50.5% · realized 49.9% · n = 451,182
60-80%
predicted 70.6% · realized 69.8% · n = 527,136
80-100%
predicted 83.0% · realized 82.6% · n = 149,679

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-29363.9839.9%not touched ✗
2026-09-30357.6139.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-01362.2339.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-02365.4639.9%touched ✓
2026-10-05374.7339.9%touched ✓
2026-10-06388.0139.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-07384.2939.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-08379.6739.9%not touched ✗
2026-10-09387.9139.9%touched ✓
2026-10-12388.1239.9%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →