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Odds

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top 100 by |delta_held|, written as plain IF/THEN statements. rate/base measured on the held-out sample (out-of-sample, not the original fit window) — the honest number.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Today's strongest verified conditions

IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
95.1% vs 35.1% base
+60.0 pp · n=201 · held-out
IF the 9:30am open is far above the prior session's open AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
91.8% vs 31.7% base
+60.0 pp · n=170 · held-out
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
95.1% vs 35.4% base
+59.6 pp · n=203 · held-out

Full database below.

FOXALGO / ODDS INSTRUMENT 01
100 FINDINGS

CONDITIONAL ODDS / RESEARCH MAP

-6066-6062held-out delta vs base (pp)conservative edge, 95% CI lower bound − base (pp)
badge:CROSS-CLUSTER

Click a point to jump to its row in the full database below.

No verified conditional findings yet for this asset class — conditional odds require the multi-year verification pipeline that has so far run on futures only. This surface is still in progress and has not yet been through the skeptic review process. Touch probabilities are available on the daily map and each market's symbol page.

CI method: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held.