6E roadmap

Held era only (2,226 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-10) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 1.1147 · ATR14: 0.0035 · 09:30 open: 1.1238

Every probability below is measured on 2018-01-01 onward only (the most recent regime), never on the pooled full history: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 period and 2018 onward, so only the recent number ships. The era flag marks a cell that moved between the two periods -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1240	0.0002	88.6%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	1.1236	0.0002	89.5%	2,224	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	1.1241	0.0003	76.9%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1235	0.0003	78.5%	2,224	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	1.1243	0.0005	64.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1233	0.0005	68.0%	2,224	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	up	1.1245	0.0007	53.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	1.1231	0.0007	57.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1247	0.0009	45.0%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1229	0.0009	48.3%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1248	0.0010	37.4%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1228	0.0010	40.1%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1252	0.0014	25.9%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1224	0.0014	27.6%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1255	0.0017	18.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1221	0.0017	18.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1264	0.0026	6.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1212	0.0026	6.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1273	0.0035	2.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1203	0.0035	2.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1290	0.0052	0.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	1.1186	0.0052	0.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	89.3%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	—	—	89.0%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.10	up	—	—	77.4%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	78.5%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	—	—	67.3%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	—	—	69.7%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	—	—	57.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	—	—	60.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	—	—	49.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	—	—	51.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	42.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	down	—	—	44.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.40	up	—	—	29.5%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	33.1%	2,224	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	—	—	20.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	23.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	up	—	—	8.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	—	—	8.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	—	—	3.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	—	—	3.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	—	—	0.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	—	—	0.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,225	0.39	0.44	0.53	0.68	0.89	1.12	1.33	1.87
0930	2,225	0.41	0.46	0.56	0.73	0.94	1.20	1.40	1.93
1030	2,225	0.44	0.50	0.61	0.79	1.03	1.31	1.54	2.09

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	54.2%	334	—
0.5-0.85	56.9%	1,074	—
0.85-1.05	59.9%	404	—
1.05-1.25	55.9%	186	—
>1.25	57.2%	180	moved since 2018

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

SCENERY: no measurable difference - this level behaves like any other price at that distance.
PULLS: price reached this level clearly more often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.
REPELS: price reached this level clearly less often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1240	0.0002	92.9%	168	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.1241	0.0003	85.4%	82	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1243	0.0005	73.0%	89	PULLS	—
0.20	up	1.1245	0.0007	52.6%	95	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1247	0.0009	49.5%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1248	0.0010	29.5%	112	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1252	0.0014	28.2%	135	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1255	0.0017	13.7%	182	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1264	0.0026	8.4%	119	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1273	0.0035	0.0%	43	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1290	0.0052	0.0%	10	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.1236	0.0002	91.2%	137	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1235	0.0003	83.2%	113	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1233	0.0005	66.3%	92	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1231	0.0007	49.0%	96	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1229	0.0009	48.3%	89	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.1228	0.0010	37.3%	110	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1224	0.0014	31.8%	126	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1221	0.0017	20.3%	153	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1212	0.0026	10.8%	111	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1203	0.0035	6.5%	46	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1186	0.0052	0.0%	10	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1240	0.0002	90.9%	110	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.1241	0.0003	79.2%	77	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1243	0.0005	59.6%	89	REPELS	—
0.20	up	1.1245	0.0007	54.9%	91	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	1.1247	0.0009	33.7%	98	REPELS	—
0.30	up	1.1248	0.0010	31.5%	124	REPELS	—
0.40	up	1.1252	0.0014	25.5%	165	REPELS	—
0.50	up	1.1255	0.0017	19.2%	297	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	1.1264	0.0026	7.5%	267	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	1.1273	0.0035	2.0%	205	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	1.1290	0.0052	1.3%	76	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	1.1236	0.0002	82.6%	86	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1235	0.0003	72.2%	54	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1233	0.0005	70.5%	61	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1231	0.0007	60.5%	38	PULLS	—
0.25	down	1.1229	0.0009	45.5%	44	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1228	0.0010	46.9%	64	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1224	0.0014	29.8%	67	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1221	0.0017	24.7%	81	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1212	0.0026	5.3%	57	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1203	0.0035	8.3%	36	PULLS	—
1.50	down	1.1186	0.0052	0.0%	12	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1240	0.0002	91.5%	118	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.1241	0.0003	84.9%	66	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.1243	0.0005	60.0%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1245	0.0007	59.7%	62	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1247	0.0009	38.1%	63	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.1248	0.0010	37.9%	58	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1252	0.0014	24.6%	69	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1255	0.0017	11.1%	90	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1264	0.0026	7.8%	51	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1273	0.0035	0.0%	21	PULLS	—
1.50	up	1.1290	0.0052	0.0%	5	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.1236	0.0002	93.2%	103	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.1235	0.0003	90.0%	80	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1233	0.0005	67.7%	93	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1231	0.0007	52.2%	90	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.1229	0.0009	49.4%	79	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.1228	0.0010	35.6%	132	REPELS	—
0.40	down	1.1224	0.0014	31.0%	174	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1221	0.0017	16.7%	263	REPELS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1212	0.0026	6.9%	232	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	1.1203	0.0035	4.1%	194	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	1.1186	0.0052	1.2%	86	SCENERY	—

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1240	0.0002	89.3%	131	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	1.1241	0.0003	72.4%	87	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1243	0.0005	58.6%	87	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1245	0.0007	50.5%	95	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1247	0.0009	43.4%	76	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.1248	0.0010	41.0%	117	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	1.1252	0.0014	27.4%	113	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1255	0.0017	12.3%	179	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1264	0.0026	4.0%	149	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1273	0.0035	1.3%	76	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1290	0.0052	0.0%	21	PULLS	—
0.05	down	1.1236	0.0002	94.5%	145	PULLS	—
0.10	down	1.1235	0.0003	77.4%	93	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.1233	0.0005	59.0%	95	REPELS	—
0.20	down	1.1231	0.0007	53.0%	66	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.1229	0.0009	48.4%	64	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.1228	0.0010	31.9%	91	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1224	0.0014	22.6%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1221	0.0017	17.1%	140	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1212	0.0026	11.0%	154	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1203	0.0035	2.7%	74	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1186	0.0052	5.3%	38	PULLS	—

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1240	0.0002	90.3%	155	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.1241	0.0003	69.2%	78	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1243	0.0005	53.6%	97	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1245	0.0007	47.3%	74	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1247	0.0009	48.4%	97	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.1248	0.0010	35.7%	112	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1252	0.0014	29.0%	124	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1255	0.0017	15.0%	153	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1264	0.0026	4.8%	147	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1273	0.0035	1.7%	58	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1290	0.0052	0.0%	12	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.1236	0.0002	92.4%	131	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.1235	0.0003	77.7%	94	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.1233	0.0005	63.4%	82	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1231	0.0007	49.3%	75	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.1229	0.0009	50.0%	84	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1228	0.0010	35.9%	106	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1224	0.0014	22.5%	120	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1221	0.0017	21.8%	142	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1212	0.0026	9.9%	132	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1203	0.0035	6.2%	65	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1186	0.0052	0.0%	25	PULLS	—

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1240	0.0002	93.1%	261	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	1.1241	0.0003	78.5%	158	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1243	0.0005	63.1%	168	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1245	0.0007	51.9%	129	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1247	0.0009	45.3%	117	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1248	0.0010	35.9%	128	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1252	0.0014	33.3%	120	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1255	0.0017	8.5%	47	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1264	0.0026	0.0%	17	PULLS	—
1.00	up	1.1273	0.0035	25.0%	4	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	1.1290	0.0052	0.0%	1	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.1236	0.0002	93.1%	231	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.1235	0.0003	76.3%	160	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.1233	0.0005	72.2%	144	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1231	0.0007	50.8%	118	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1229	0.0009	47.7%	107	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1228	0.0010	42.5%	134	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1224	0.0014	26.0%	104	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1221	0.0017	27.3%	55	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1212	0.0026	18.8%	16	PULLS	—
1.00	down	1.1203	0.0035	20.0%	5	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	1.1186	0.0052	—	0	Not enough data (n<30)	—

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	46.7%	2,178	moved since 2018
up >0.20	69.6%	56	—
up 0.10-0.20	59.8%	204	moved since 2018
up 0.05-0.10	54.4%	316	moved since 2018
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	47.2%	1,024	moved since 2018
dn 0.05-0.10	39.7%	315	—
dn 0.10-0.20	28.8%	212	—
dn >0.20	27.5%	51	—

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	42.5%	2,224
RTH low is final by 10:30	39.6%	2,224
Both high and low final by 10:30	5.5%	2,224
Low comes before high (full day)	48.2%	2,224
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	49.1%	2,224

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.7%	10,458	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	61.9%	5,770	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	61.8%	1,207	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	60.6%	231	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	74.7%	71	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	40.4%	47	moved since 2018
[1.5,2.0)	62.5%	8	—
>=2.0	—	0	—

Low is in before the high

Share of days where the RTH low / high of the day has already been set, by clock checkpoint.

By 15:00 the low is already in 88% of days, the high 89%.

checkpoint	low in %	high in %	diff	n
09:45	19.3%	19.8%	-0.5	2,224
10:30	39.6%	42.5%	-2.9	2,224
12:00	61.5%	65.0%	-3.6	2,224
14:00	78.6%	80.8%	-2.2	2,224
15:00	87.8%	89.2%	-1.4	2,224

Don't fade a stretched day

At each checkpoint, chance the day's range still extends >=0.05 ATR further by the 16:00 close, by how far the range has already stretched.

range so far (ATR)	10:30	12:00	14:00
<0.80	57.0%	35.8%	17.7%
0.80-1.05	70.6% reading, not a rule (n=17)	57.4% reading, not a rule (n=54)	33.9% reading, not a rule (n=109)
1.05-1.25	75.0% reading, not a rule (n=4)	53.8% reading, not a rule (n=13)	23.3% reading, not a rule (n=30)
>=1.25	40.0% reading, not a rule (n=5)	36.4% reading, not a rule (n=22)	20.6% reading, not a rule (n=34)

Yesterday's close vs. prior day range

R1/R2 use the full session (18:00-17:00 ET) close and prior-day range, not RTH -- see the note on the JSON for how this differs from the named-levels section above.

2 row(s) below 77% confidence hidden by default. Show all (incl. under 77%)

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.