CL roadmap

Held era only (2,224 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 95.83 · ATR14: 2.6807 · 09:30 open: 94.77

Every probability below is measured on 2018-01-01 onward only (the most recent regime), never on the pooled full history: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 period and 2018 onward, so only the recent number ships. The era flag marks a cell that moved between the two periods -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	94.90	0.1340	89.3%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	94.64	0.1340	89.9%	2,223	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.10	up	95.04	0.2681	79.5%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	94.50	0.2681	80.3%	2,223	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	95.17	0.4021	70.0%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.15	down	94.37	0.4021	70.7%	2,223	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	95.31	0.5361	62.1%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	94.23	0.5361	62.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	95.44	0.6702	53.2%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	94.10	0.6702	54.1%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	95.57	0.8042	45.3%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	down	93.97	0.8042	47.6%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.40	up	95.84	1.0723	32.8%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	93.70	1.0723	36.0%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	96.11	1.3404	22.9%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.50	down	93.43	1.3404	26.4%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.75	up	96.78	2.0105	8.3%	2,223	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	92.76	2.0105	12.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	97.45	2.6807	3.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	92.09	2.6807	5.3%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	98.79	4.0211	0.4%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	90.75	4.0211	1.5%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	91.0%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	—	—	91.6%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	—	—	82.1%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	—	—	82.6%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	—	—	74.1%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.15	down	—	—	73.1%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.20	up	—	—	65.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	—	—	66.1%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	—	—	57.1%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	—	—	57.2%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	49.9%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	down	—	—	50.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.40	up	—	—	35.5%	2,223	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	39.1%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	—	—	25.1%	2,223	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	29.5%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.75	up	—	—	11.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	—	—	14.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	—	—	3.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	—	—	7.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	—	—	0.6%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	—	—	1.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,223	0.32	0.37	0.45	0.58	0.76	0.99	1.16	2.12
0930	2,223	0.35	0.41	0.50	0.64	0.84	1.09	1.29	2.14
1030	2,223	0.39	0.46	0.57	0.72	0.94	1.22	1.43	2.27

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	58.4%	512	—
0.5-0.85	56.6%	1,110	—
0.85-1.05	52.9%	276	—
1.05-1.25	50.8%	132	moved since 2018
>1.25	57.0%	121	—

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

SCENERY: no measurable difference - this level behaves like any other price at that distance.
PULLS: price reached this level clearly more often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.
REPELS: price reached this level clearly less often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	94.90	0.1340	91.9%	186	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	95.04	0.2681	80.4%	112	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	95.17	0.4021	68.5%	111	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	95.31	0.5361	66.7%	93	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	95.44	0.6702	61.3%	80	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	95.57	0.8042	46.7%	120	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	95.84	1.0723	25.7%	101	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	96.11	1.3404	31.2%	125	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	96.78	2.0105	17.4%	92	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	97.45	2.6807	4.9%	41	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	98.79	4.0211	0.0%	8	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	94.64	0.1340	94.0%	184	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	94.50	0.2681	84.6%	123	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	94.37	0.4021	70.9%	110	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	94.23	0.5361	60.0%	110	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	94.10	0.6702	44.4%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	93.97	0.8042	43.0%	121	REPELS	—
0.40	down	93.70	1.0723	34.7%	127	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	93.43	1.3404	24.4%	156	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	92.76	2.0105	13.7%	95	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	92.09	2.6807	12.5%	16	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	90.75	4.0211	25.0%	4	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	94.90	0.1340	96.4%	111	PULLS	—
0.10	up	95.04	0.2681	84.6%	91	PULLS	—
0.15	up	95.17	0.4021	69.6%	92	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	95.31	0.5361	63.1%	111	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	95.44	0.6702	56.1%	82	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	95.57	0.8042	37.8%	119	REPELS	—
0.40	up	95.84	1.0723	31.0%	174	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	96.11	1.3404	22.1%	253	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	96.78	2.0105	12.8%	251	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	97.45	2.6807	2.7%	185	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	98.79	4.0211	1.0%	103	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	94.64	0.1340	86.2%	123	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	94.50	0.2681	83.1%	71	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	94.37	0.4021	59.5%	79	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	94.23	0.5361	63.0%	54	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	94.10	0.6702	47.2%	53	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	93.97	0.8042	37.5%	64	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	93.70	1.0723	34.7%	49	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	93.43	1.3404	27.7%	65	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	92.76	2.0105	6.5%	31	REPELS	—
1.00	down	92.09	2.6807	0.0%	14	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	90.75	4.0211	14.3%	7	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	94.90	0.1340	90.8%	98	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	95.04	0.2681	85.5%	55	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	95.17	0.4021	73.9%	46	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	95.31	0.5361	65.0%	40	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	95.44	0.6702	61.3%	31	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	95.57	0.8042	45.2%	42	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	95.84	1.0723	43.4%	53	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	96.11	1.3404	28.6%	56	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	96.78	2.0105	15.0%	40	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	97.45	2.6807	4.4%	23	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	98.79	4.0211	0.0%	7	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	94.64	0.1340	91.2%	68	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	94.50	0.2681	86.3%	80	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	94.37	0.4021	77.0%	74	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	94.23	0.5361	48.3%	87	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	94.10	0.6702	50.5%	107	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	93.97	0.8042	49.4%	158	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	93.70	1.0723	26.2%	187	REPELS	—
0.50	down	93.43	1.3404	23.2%	293	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	92.76	2.0105	14.2%	324	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	92.09	2.6807	3.9%	231	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	90.75	4.0211	3.5%	86	SCENERY	—

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	94.90	0.1340	94.5%	145	PULLS	—
0.10	up	95.04	0.2681	84.2%	82	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	95.17	0.4021	69.1%	97	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	95.31	0.5361	58.4%	77	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	95.44	0.6702	62.0%	79	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	95.57	0.8042	45.5%	77	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	95.84	1.0723	32.4%	102	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	96.11	1.3404	25.2%	139	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	96.78	2.0105	13.6%	118	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	97.45	2.6807	6.5%	77	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	98.79	4.0211	0.0%	22	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	94.64	0.1340	92.5%	159	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	94.50	0.2681	81.0%	84	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	94.37	0.4021	62.4%	85	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	94.23	0.5361	55.9%	93	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	94.10	0.6702	45.9%	98	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	93.97	0.8042	50.9%	110	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	93.70	1.0723	37.0%	146	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	93.43	1.3404	22.7%	185	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	92.76	2.0105	11.0%	145	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	92.09	2.6807	6.0%	67	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	90.75	4.0211	0.0%	16	SCENERY	—

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	94.90	0.1340	94.8%	172	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	95.04	0.2681	75.6%	86	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	95.17	0.4021	77.3%	110	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	95.31	0.5361	70.0%	90	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	95.44	0.6702	54.7%	86	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	95.57	0.8042	40.2%	97	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	95.84	1.0723	35.6%	101	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	96.11	1.3404	25.8%	120	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	96.78	2.0105	17.0%	94	PULLS	—
1.00	up	97.45	2.6807	5.2%	58	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	98.79	4.0211	0.0%	15	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	94.64	0.1340	93.4%	151	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	94.50	0.2681	77.3%	110	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	94.37	0.4021	75.0%	96	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	94.23	0.5361	57.8%	102	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	94.10	0.6702	50.5%	93	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	93.97	0.8042	46.5%	114	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	93.70	1.0723	29.8%	131	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	93.43	1.3404	26.2%	141	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	92.76	2.0105	8.2%	110	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	92.09	2.6807	4.6%	44	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	90.75	4.0211	7.1%	14	Not enough data (n<30)	—

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	94.90	0.1340	91.2%	308	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	95.04	0.2681	81.8%	170	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	95.17	0.4021	70.6%	146	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	95.31	0.5361	70.0%	120	PULLS	—
0.25	up	95.44	0.6702	55.4%	92	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	95.57	0.8042	46.2%	78	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	95.84	1.0723	44.4%	81	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	96.11	1.3404	24.3%	37	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	96.78	2.0105	40.0%	10	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.00	up	97.45	2.6807	0.0%	2	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	94.64	0.1340	92.8%	293	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	94.50	0.2681	80.3%	183	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	94.37	0.4021	71.6%	183	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	94.23	0.5361	55.2%	163	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	94.10	0.6702	57.4%	108	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	93.97	0.8042	47.5%	141	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	93.70	1.0723	37.3%	67	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	93.43	1.3404	37.5%	32	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	92.76	2.0105	75.0%	4	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.00	down	92.09	2.6807	100.0%	3	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	90.75	4.0211	0.0%	1	Not enough data (n<30)	—

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	51.3%	2,151	—
up >0.20	78.6%	98	—
up 0.10-0.20	67.3%	275	—
up 0.05-0.10	56.0%	316	—
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	52.5%	751	—
dn 0.05-0.10	40.4%	280	—
dn 0.10-0.20	37.9%	330	—
dn >0.20	31.7%	101	—

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	36.4%	2,223
RTH low is final by 10:30	38.3%	2,223
Both high and low final by 10:30	3.1%	2,223
Low comes before high (full day)	51.0%	2,223
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	51.6%	2,223

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	73.7%	9,108	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	67.7%	6,631	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	65.4%	1,494	—
[0.75,1.0)	71.0%	376	—
[1.0,1.25)	73.9%	115	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	55.6%	36	—
[1.5,2.0)	54.2%	24	—
>=2.0	—	0	—

Low is in before the high

Share of days where the RTH low / high of the day has already been set, by clock checkpoint.

By 15:00 the low is already in 93% of days, the high 90%.

checkpoint	low in %	high in %	diff	n
09:45	19.5%	19.7%	-0.1	2,223
10:30	38.3%	36.4%	+1.9	2,223
12:00	62.6%	57.9%	+4.7	2,223
14:00	80.0%	77.1%	+2.9	2,223
15:00	93.2%	90.1%	+3.2	2,223

Don't fade a stretched day

At each checkpoint, chance the day's range still extends >=0.05 ATR further by the 16:00 close, by how far the range has already stretched.

range so far (ATR)	10:30	12:00	14:00
<0.80	62.7%	40.6%	20.3%
0.80-1.05	81.8% reading, not a rule (n=22)	52.2% reading, not a rule (n=115)	25.0%
1.05-1.25	50.0% reading, not a rule (n=6)	56.3% reading, not a rule (n=32)	22.5% reading, not a rule (n=49)
>=1.25	50.0% reading, not a rule (n=6)	44.8% reading, not a rule (n=29)	25.8% reading, not a rule (n=66)

Yesterday's close vs. prior day range

R1/R2 use the full session (18:00-17:00 ET) close and prior-day range, not RTH -- see the note on the JSON for how this differs from the named-levels section above.

2 row(s) below 77% confidence hidden by default. Show all (incl. under 77%)

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.