GC roadmap

Held era only (2,224 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 4127.80 · ATR14: 41.83 · 09:30 open: 4185.50

Every probability below is measured on 2018-01-01 onward only (the most recent regime), never on the pooled full history: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 period and 2018 onward, so only the recent number ships. The era flag marks a cell that moved between the two periods -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4187.59	2.0914	88.1%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	4183.41	2.0914	88.8%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	4189.68	4.1829	75.3%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	4181.32	4.1829	78.0%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	4191.77	6.2743	65.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.15	down	4179.23	6.2743	66.9%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	up	4193.87	8.3657	56.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	4177.13	8.3657	57.3%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	4195.96	10.46	47.7%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	4175.04	10.46	48.6%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	up	4198.05	12.55	38.9%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.30	down	4172.95	12.55	41.4%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.40	up	4202.23	16.73	27.3%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	4168.77	16.73	29.4%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	4206.41	20.91	18.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.50	down	4164.59	20.91	20.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	up	4216.87	31.37	6.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	4154.13	31.37	8.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	4227.33	41.83	2.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	4143.67	41.83	3.9%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	4248.24	62.74	0.4%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	4122.76	62.74	0.7%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	89.7%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	—	—	90.2%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	—	—	78.6%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	—	—	78.8%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	—	—	67.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.15	down	—	—	69.9%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	up	—	—	59.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	—	—	61.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	—	—	51.4%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	—	—	53.3%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	up	—	—	43.7%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.30	down	—	—	45.8%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.40	up	—	—	30.9%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	—	—	33.2%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	—	—	22.3%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.50	down	—	—	23.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	up	—	—	9.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	—	—	10.4%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	—	—	3.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	—	—	4.6%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	—	—	0.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	—	—	1.0%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,223	0.38	0.41	0.51	0.66	0.87	1.12	1.33	2.06
0930	2,223	0.39	0.44	0.54	0.70	0.93	1.20	1.46	2.18
1030	2,223	0.43	0.49	0.61	0.80	1.03	1.35	1.68	2.46

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	62.4%	378	—
0.5-0.85	59.7%	1,060	—
0.85-1.05	58.9%	338	—
1.05-1.25	62.6%	182	—
>1.25	63.2%	190	—

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

SCENERY: no measurable difference - this level behaves like any other price at that distance.
PULLS: price reached this level clearly more often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.
REPELS: price reached this level clearly less often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4187.59	2.0914	87.7%	203	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4189.68	4.1829	76.5%	115	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4191.77	6.2743	63.5%	85	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4193.87	8.3657	55.0%	100	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4195.96	10.46	41.0%	83	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4198.05	12.55	35.7%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	4202.23	16.73	26.3%	99	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4206.41	20.91	18.5%	92	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4216.87	31.37	10.1%	79	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4227.33	41.83	0.0%	44	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4248.24	62.74	0.0%	18	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	4183.41	2.0914	88.6%	202	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4181.32	4.1829	72.9%	140	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4179.23	6.2743	69.6%	125	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	4177.13	8.3657	50.5%	99	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4175.04	10.46	41.4%	99	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4172.95	12.55	43.8%	121	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4168.77	16.73	29.6%	115	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	4164.59	20.91	15.9%	126	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4154.13	31.37	13.9%	108	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4143.67	41.83	9.1%	33	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	4122.76	62.74	11.1%	9	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4187.59	2.0914	90.9%	153	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4189.68	4.1829	71.1%	83	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4191.77	6.2743	65.8%	79	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4193.87	8.3657	48.1%	104	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4195.96	10.46	46.2%	104	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4198.05	12.55	35.2%	162	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	4202.23	16.73	24.9%	181	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4206.41	20.91	18.3%	235	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4216.87	31.37	4.0%	201	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	up	4227.33	41.83	3.5%	142	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4248.24	62.74	0.0%	78	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	4183.41	2.0914	95.2%	103	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4181.32	4.1829	70.3%	64	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4179.23	6.2743	73.8%	61	PULLS	—
0.20	down	4177.13	8.3657	55.6%	45	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4175.04	10.46	49.1%	57	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4172.95	12.55	41.2%	68	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4168.77	16.73	40.0%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	4164.59	20.91	21.2%	85	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4154.13	31.37	11.8%	68	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4143.67	41.83	11.1%	36	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	4122.76	62.74	7.7%	13	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4187.59	2.0914	92.7%	96	PULLS	—
0.10	up	4189.68	4.1829	66.0%	47	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4191.77	6.2743	52.8%	36	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4193.87	8.3657	51.5%	33	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4195.96	10.46	46.7%	30	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4198.05	12.55	27.5%	40	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	4202.23	16.73	37.5%	32	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4206.41	20.91	20.0%	65	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4216.87	31.37	11.1%	54	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4227.33	41.83	3.0%	33	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4248.24	62.74	0.0%	10	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	4183.41	2.0914	94.3%	105	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4181.32	4.1829	76.0%	75	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4179.23	6.2743	65.7%	108	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	4177.13	8.3657	55.8%	104	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4175.04	10.46	45.6%	103	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4172.95	12.55	37.9%	153	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4168.77	16.73	19.3%	192	REPELS	—
0.50	down	4164.59	20.91	12.9%	264	REPELS	—
0.75	down	4154.13	31.37	8.3%	276	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4143.67	41.83	2.3%	217	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	4122.76	62.74	1.8%	110	SCENERY	—

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4187.59	2.0914	92.2%	166	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4189.68	4.1829	69.6%	115	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4191.77	6.2743	64.2%	95	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4193.87	8.3657	51.3%	76	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4195.96	10.46	60.9%	69	PULLS	—
0.30	up	4198.05	12.55	23.0%	100	REPELS	—
0.40	up	4202.23	16.73	32.4%	68	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4206.41	20.91	14.8%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	4216.87	31.37	7.9%	89	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4227.33	41.83	1.3%	77	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4248.24	62.74	0.0%	33	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	4183.41	2.0914	88.2%	153	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4181.32	4.1829	73.3%	101	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	4179.23	6.2743	62.2%	90	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	4177.13	8.3657	52.0%	75	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	4175.04	10.46	41.4%	99	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4172.95	12.55	41.2%	97	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4168.77	16.73	34.8%	115	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	4164.59	20.91	16.3%	196	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4154.13	31.37	12.1%	132	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4143.67	41.83	7.9%	101	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	4122.76	62.74	0.0%	32	SCENERY	—

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4187.59	2.0914	92.4%	157	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4189.68	4.1829	80.2%	101	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4191.77	6.2743	56.3%	103	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4193.87	8.3657	63.6%	66	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4195.96	10.46	33.3%	78	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4198.05	12.55	35.0%	80	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	4202.23	16.73	24.2%	95	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4206.41	20.91	16.1%	93	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4216.87	31.37	8.8%	91	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4227.33	41.83	1.7%	58	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4248.24	62.74	0.0%	25	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	4183.41	2.0914	88.3%	171	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	4181.32	4.1829	75.6%	115	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4179.23	6.2743	55.6%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	4177.13	8.3657	57.0%	93	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4175.04	10.46	38.0%	92	REPELS	—
0.30	down	4172.95	12.55	35.3%	119	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4168.77	16.73	31.8%	129	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	4164.59	20.91	24.2%	153	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4154.13	31.37	9.6%	115	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4143.67	41.83	6.3%	79	PULLS	—
1.50	down	4122.76	62.74	5.6%	18	SCENERY	—

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4187.59	2.0914	90.2%	305	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4189.68	4.1829	71.3%	160	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4191.77	6.2743	60.6%	137	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	4193.87	8.3657	58.8%	114	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4195.96	10.46	52.6%	95	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4198.05	12.55	41.2%	68	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	4202.23	16.73	36.1%	61	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4206.41	20.91	21.4%	42	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4216.87	31.37	4.6%	22	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4227.33	41.83	33.3%	3	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	4248.24	62.74	0.0%	2	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	4183.41	2.0914	89.2%	305	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4181.32	4.1829	72.3%	213	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4179.23	6.2743	64.8%	159	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	4177.13	8.3657	58.5%	147	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4175.04	10.46	50.9%	116	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4172.95	12.55	47.8%	115	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4168.77	16.73	25.5%	98	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	4164.59	20.91	27.1%	48	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4154.13	31.37	0.0%	13	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.00	down	4143.67	41.83	—	0	Not enough data (n<30)	—

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	49.6%	2,148	—
up >0.20	76.2%	105	—
up 0.10-0.20	63.4%	284	—
up 0.05-0.10	56.6%	320	—
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	49.9%	730	moved since 2018
dn 0.05-0.10	42.9%	301	—
dn 0.10-0.20	36.4%	280	—
dn >0.20	22.7%	128	—

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	44.8%	2,223
RTH low is final by 10:30	48.2%	2,223
Both high and low final by 10:30	8.6%	2,223
Low comes before high (full day)	50.5%	2,223
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	50.1%	2,223

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	66.2%	8,982	—
[0.25,0.5)	58.3%	6,585	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	56.9%	1,565	—
[0.75,1.0)	68.0%	415	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	66.9%	136	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	54.6%	66	—
[1.5,2.0)	66.7%	30	—
>=2.0	0.0%	5	—

Low is in before the high

Share of days where the RTH low / high of the day has already been set, by clock checkpoint.

By 15:00 the low is already in 90% of days, the high 89%.

checkpoint	low in %	high in %	diff	n
09:45	25.2%	23.7%	+1.6	2,223
10:30	48.2%	44.8%	+3.4	2,223
12:00	67.9%	64.8%	+3.1	2,223
14:00	82.5%	81.4%	+1.0	2,223
15:00	89.8%	88.8%	+1.0	2,223

Don't fade a stretched day

At each checkpoint, chance the day's range still extends >=0.05 ATR further by the 16:00 close, by how far the range has already stretched.

range so far (ATR)	10:30	12:00	14:00
<0.80	52.3%	32.7%	16.6%
0.80-1.05	75.8% reading, not a rule (n=33)	42.3% reading, not a rule (n=78)	19.8%
1.05-1.25	77.8% reading, not a rule (n=9)	17.2% reading, not a rule (n=29)	17.4% reading, not a rule (n=46)
>=1.25	54.6% reading, not a rule (n=11)	30.3% reading, not a rule (n=33)	14.9% reading, not a rule (n=47)

Yesterday's close vs. prior day range

R1/R2 use the full session (18:00-17:00 ET) close and prior-day range, not RTH -- see the note on the JSON for how this differs from the named-levels section above.

2 row(s) below 77% confidence hidden by default. Show all (incl. under 77%)

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.