GBP/USD (GBPUSD)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 08:15 ET

last quote 1.3268 · as of 08:16 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-14T12:15:26.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / GBPUSD CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 1.3268

GBPUSD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	1.33	51.7%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	1.33	52.0%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	1.33	23.0%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	1.32	23.4%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	1.33	9.8%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	1.32	10.4%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	1.33	4.4%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	1.32	4.6%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	1.34	1.0%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	1.32	1.1%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.0022

high 1.3275 / low 1.3253 · n=54 bars

position in today's range

66.9%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+0.0013

open 1.3255

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.309 → narrow (n = 13,280)

narrow < 0.749, typical < 1.101, else wide — based on a partial-session window (54 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / GBPUSD INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	36.4%	35.5%	8,522
0.25	5.2%	5.3%	8,522
0.5	0.5%	0.4%	8,522

Measured from the 780-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 525m).

FOXALGO / GBPUSD INSTRUMENT 01

GBPUSD · P(touch within next 525m)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 525m) up	down level	P(touch within next 525m) down	n
0.25	1.3286	51.7%	1.3250	52.0%	8,521
0.5	1.3304	23.0%	1.3232	23.4%	8,521
0.75	1.3321	9.9%	1.3215	10.5%	8,521
1	1.3339	4.4%	1.3197	4.6%	8,521
1.5	1.3375	1.0%	1.3161	1.1%	8,521

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for GBP/USD

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-09-29	1.3267	23.0%	touched ✓
2026-09-30	1.3301	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-01	1.3236	23.0%	touched ✓
2026-10-04	1.3281	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-05	1.3257	23.0%	touched ✓
2026-10-06	1.3305	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-07	1.3251	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-08	1.3268	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-11	1.3277	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-12	1.3248	23.0%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →