USD/JPY (USDJPY)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 08:01 ET

last quote 158.43 · as of 08:15 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-14T12:01:02.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / USDJPY CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 158.429

USDJPY · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	158.69	51.7%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	158.17	52.0%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	158.94	23.0%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	157.91	23.4%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	159.20	9.8%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	157.66	10.4%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	159.46	4.4%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	157.40	4.6%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	159.97	1.0%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	156.88	1.1%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.4110

high 158.52 / low 158.11 · n=54 bars

position in today's range

78.6%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+0.0860

open 158.34

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.399 → narrow (n = 13,280)

narrow < 0.749, typical < 1.101, else wide — based on a partial-session window (54 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / USDJPY INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	36.4%	35.5%	8,522
0.25	5.2%	5.3%	8,522
0.5	0.5%	0.4%	8,522

Measured from the 780-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 525m).

FOXALGO / USDJPY INSTRUMENT 01

USDJPY · P(touch within next 525m)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 525m) up	down level	P(touch within next 525m) down	n
0.25	158.69	51.7%	158.17	52.0%	8,521
0.5	158.94	23.0%	157.91	23.4%	8,521
0.75	159.20	9.9%	157.66	10.5%	8,521
1	159.46	4.4%	157.40	4.6%	8,521
1.5	159.97	1.0%	156.88	1.1%	8,521

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for USD/JPY

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-09-29	158.12	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-09-30	158.28	23.0%	touched ✓
2026-10-01	158.62	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-04	158.40	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-05	158.60	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-06	158.94	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-07	158.71	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-08	158.62	23.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-11	158.70	23.0%	touched ✓
2026-10-12	159.04	23.0%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →