Daily Probability Map

SNAPSHOT 11:25 ETNEW YORK SESSION

Touch probability for every tracked market, updated every 15 minutes. Hover a cell for detail, click a market's row to open its drawer.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Markets tracked

31 / 32

Levels resolved today

108

Still live

156

Last update

SNAPSHOT 11:15 ET

Futures Stocks FX Crypto

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked futures market.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET session open — the feed's available session-range window may not start at exactly that instant, see methodology.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
E-mini S&P 500last 7677.50	↑82.6% ↓76.4% ✓83% ✓76% +6.1pp	↑58.4% ↓51.6% ✓58% ✓52% +6.8pp	↑27.9% ↓27.9% ✓28% 28% +0.0pp	↑12.0% ↓15.1% 12% 15% -3.1pp	↑5.1% ↓7.7% 5% 8% -2.6pp	↑1.2% ↓2.5% 1% 3% -1.3pp
E-mini Nasdaq 100last 29204.25	↑82.6% ↓76.4% ✓83% ✓76% +6.1pp	↑58.4% ↓51.6% ✓58% ✓52% +6.8pp	↑27.9% ↓27.9% ✓28% 28% +0.0pp	↑12.0% ↓15.1% 12% 15% -3.1pp	↑5.1% ↓7.7% 5% 8% -2.6pp	↑1.2% ↓2.5% 1% 3% -1.3pp
E-mini Dowlast 53518.00	↑82.6% ↓76.4% ✓83% ✓76% +6.1pp	↑58.4% ↓51.6% ✓58% 52% +6.8pp	↑27.9% ↓27.9% ✓28% 28% +0.0pp	↑12.0% ↓15.1% ✓12% 15% -3.1pp	↑5.1% ↓7.7% 5% 8% -2.6pp	↑1.2% ↓2.5% 1% 3% -1.3pp
E-mini Russell 2000last 3010.80	↑82.6% ↓76.4% ✓83% ✓76% +6.1pp	↑58.4% ↓51.6% ✓58% 52% +6.8pp	↑27.9% ↓27.9% ✓28% 28% +0.0pp	↑12.0% ↓15.1% 12% 15% -3.1pp	↑5.1% ↓7.7% 5% 8% -2.6pp	↑1.2% ↓2.5% 1% 3% -1.3pp
Goldlast 4688.00	↑79.2% ↓79.4% ✓79% ✓79% -0.1pp	↑52.7% ↓53.6% ✓53% ✓54% -0.9pp	↑24.9% ↓26.0% 25% ✓26% -1.1pp	↑11.3% ↓12.6% 11% 13% -1.3pp	↑5.6% ↓6.5% 6% 7% -1.0pp	↑1.5% ↓2.0% 2% 2% -0.5pp
WTI Crudelast 82.66	↑80.9% ↓81.2% 81% ✓81% -0.2pp	↑57.0% ↓58.1% 57% ✓58% -1.1pp	↑28.4% ↓29.5% 28% ✓29% -1.0pp	↑13.8% ↓14.5% 14% ✓14% -0.7pp	↑6.3% ↓6.9% 6% ✓7% -0.7pp	↑1.4% ↓1.5% 1% ✓2% -0.1pp

E-mini S&P 500GoldWTI Crude

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

E-mini S&P 500 · last quote 7677.50

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.6%	76.4%	11,653
0.25	58.4%	51.6%	11,653
0.5	27.9%	27.9%	11,653
0.75	12.0%	15.1%	11,653
1	5.1%	7.7%	11,653
1.5	1.2%	2.5%	11,653

E-mini Nasdaq 100 · last quote 29204.25

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.6%	76.4%	11,653
0.25	58.4%	51.6%	11,653
0.5	27.9%	27.9%	11,653
0.75	12.0%	15.1%	11,653
1	5.1%	7.7%	11,653
1.5	1.2%	2.5%	11,653

E-mini Dow · last quote 53518.00

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.6%	76.4%	11,653
0.25	58.4%	51.6%	11,653
0.5	27.9%	27.9%	11,653
0.75	12.0%	15.1%	11,653
1	5.1%	7.7%	11,653
1.5	1.2%	2.5%	11,653

E-mini Russell 2000 · last quote 3010.80

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.6%	76.4%	11,653
0.25	58.4%	51.6%	11,653
0.5	27.9%	27.9%	11,653
0.75	12.0%	15.1%	11,653
1	5.1%	7.7%	11,653
1.5	1.2%	2.5%	11,653

Gold · last quote 4688.00

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	79.2%	79.4%	9,626
0.25	52.7%	53.6%	9,626
0.5	24.9%	26.0%	9,626
0.75	11.3%	12.6%	9,626
1	5.6%	6.5%	9,626
1.5	1.5%	2.0%	9,626

WTI Crude · last quote 82.66

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	80.9%	81.2%	9,568
0.25	57.0%	58.1%	9,568
0.5	28.4%	29.5%	9,568
0.75	13.8%	14.5%	9,568
1	6.3%	6.9%	9,568
1.5	1.4%	1.5%	9,568

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked stocks market.

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET RTH open, matching the feed's session window for exchange-listed equities.

Known gaps: No first-hit grid exists for stocks — brackets.json and width_bounds.json have no stock coverage; not yet measured.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)last 764.59	↑85.7% ↓78.2% ✓86% ✓78% +7.5pp	↑58.0% ↓52.5% 58% ✓53% +5.5pp	↑24.5% ↓27.2% 25% ✓27% -2.7pp	↑10.2% ↓14.0% 10% 14% -3.8pp	↑4.0% ↓6.5% 4% 6% -2.5pp	↑0.9% ↓1.9% 1% 2% -1.0pp
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)last 709.50	↑85.7% ↓78.2% ✓86% ✓78% +7.5pp	↑58.0% ↓52.5% ✓58% ✓53% +5.5pp	↑24.5% ↓27.2% 25% 27% -2.7pp	↑10.2% ↓14.0% 10% 14% -3.8pp	↑4.0% ↓6.5% 4% 6% -2.5pp	↑0.9% ↓1.9% 1% 2% -1.0pp
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)last 298.92	↑85.7% ↓78.2% 86% ✓78% +7.5pp	↑58.0% ↓52.5% 58% ✓53% +5.5pp	↑24.5% ↓27.2% 25% ✓27% -2.7pp	↑10.2% ↓14.0% 10% 14% -3.8pp	↑4.0% ↓6.5% 4% 6% -2.5pp	↑0.9% ↓1.9% 1% 2% -1.0pp
Applelast 309.39	↑81.3% ↓78.2% ✓81% ✓78% +3.0pp	↑54.1% ↓51.0% ✓54% ✓51% +3.1pp	↑23.6% ↓22.8% 24% 23% +0.8pp	↑9.3% ↓9.8% 9% 10% -0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓4.0% 3% 4% -0.7pp	↑0.8% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.2pp
Microsoftlast 489.34	↑81.3% ↓78.2% ✓81% ✓78% +3.0pp	↑54.1% ↓51.0% ✓54% 51% +3.1pp	↑23.6% ↓22.8% 24% 23% +0.8pp	↑9.3% ↓9.8% 9% 10% -0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓4.0% 3% 4% -0.7pp	↑0.8% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.2pp
Nvidialast 210.40	↑81.3% ↓78.2% ✓81% ✓78% +3.0pp	↑54.1% ↓51.0% ✓54% 51% +3.1pp	↑23.6% ↓22.8% ✓24% 23% +0.8pp	↑9.3% ↓9.8% ✓9% 10% -0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓4.0% 3% 4% -0.7pp	↑0.8% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.2pp
Amazonlast 261.06	↑81.3% ↓78.2% ✓81% ✓78% +3.0pp	↑54.1% ↓51.0% 54% ✓51% +3.1pp	↑23.6% ↓22.8% 24% 23% +0.8pp	↑9.3% ↓9.8% 9% 10% -0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓4.0% 3% 4% -0.7pp	↑0.8% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.2pp
Alphabet (GOOGL)last 346.28	↑81.3% ↓78.2% 81% ✓78% +3.0pp	↑54.1% ↓51.0% 54% ✓51% +3.1pp	↑23.6% ↓22.8% 24% 23% +0.8pp	↑9.3% ↓9.8% 9% 10% -0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓4.0% 3% 4% -0.7pp	↑0.8% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.2pp
Meta Platformslast 563.00	↑81.3% ↓78.2% ✓81% ✓78% +3.0pp	↑54.1% ↓51.0% ✓54% 51% +3.1pp	↑23.6% ↓22.8% 24% 23% +0.8pp	↑9.3% ↓9.8% 9% 10% -0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓4.0% 3% 4% -0.7pp	↑0.8% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.2pp
Teslalast 351.86	↑80.9% ↓77.8% ✓81% ✓78% +3.1pp	↑54.0% ↓50.3% 54% 50% +3.7pp	↑22.5% ↓20.5% 22% 21% +1.9pp	↑7.5% ↓7.1% 8% 7% +0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓2.0% 3% 2% +1.3pp	↑0.5% ↓0.3% 1% 0% +0.3pp
AMDlast 478.32	↑80.9% ↓77.8% ✓81% ✓78% +3.1pp	↑54.0% ↓50.3% ✓54% ✓50% +3.7pp	↑22.5% ↓20.5% 22% 21% +1.9pp	↑7.5% ↓7.1% 8% 7% +0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓2.0% 3% 2% +1.3pp	↑0.5% ↓0.3% 1% 0% +0.3pp
Netflixlast 81.33	↑80.9% ↓77.8% ✓81% ✓78% +3.1pp	↑54.0% ↓50.3% ✓54% 50% +3.7pp	↑22.5% ↓20.5% ✓22% 21% +1.9pp	↑7.5% ↓7.1% ✓8% 7% +0.4pp	↑3.3% ↓2.0% ✓3% 2% +1.3pp	↑0.5% ↓0.3% 1% 0% +0.3pp

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)AppleNvidia

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · last quote 764.59

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	78.2%	1,861
0.25	58.0%	52.5%	1,861
0.5	24.5%	27.2%	1,861
0.75	10.2%	14.0%	1,861
1	4.0%	6.5%	1,861
1.5	0.9%	1.9%	1,861

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) · last quote 709.50

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	78.2%	1,861
0.25	58.0%	52.5%	1,861
0.5	24.5%	27.2%	1,861
0.75	10.2%	14.0%	1,861
1	4.0%	6.5%	1,861
1.5	0.9%	1.9%	1,861

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) · last quote 298.92

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	78.2%	1,861
0.25	58.0%	52.5%	1,861
0.5	24.5%	27.2%	1,861
0.75	10.2%	14.0%	1,861
1	4.0%	6.5%	1,861
1.5	0.9%	1.9%	1,861

Apple · last quote 309.39

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.3%	78.2%	4,354
0.25	54.1%	51.0%	4,354
0.5	23.6%	22.8%	4,354
0.75	9.3%	9.8%	4,354
1	3.3%	4.0%	4,354
1.5	0.8%	0.6%	4,354

Microsoft · last quote 489.34

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.3%	78.2%	4,354
0.25	54.1%	51.0%	4,354
0.5	23.6%	22.8%	4,354
0.75	9.3%	9.8%	4,354
1	3.3%	4.0%	4,354
1.5	0.8%	0.6%	4,354

Nvidia · last quote 210.40

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.3%	78.2%	4,354
0.25	54.1%	51.0%	4,354
0.5	23.6%	22.8%	4,354
0.75	9.3%	9.8%	4,354
1	3.3%	4.0%	4,354
1.5	0.8%	0.6%	4,354

Amazon · last quote 261.06

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.3%	78.2%	4,354
0.25	54.1%	51.0%	4,354
0.5	23.6%	22.8%	4,354
0.75	9.3%	9.8%	4,354
1	3.3%	4.0%	4,354
1.5	0.8%	0.6%	4,354

Alphabet (GOOGL) · last quote 346.28

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.3%	78.2%	4,354
0.25	54.1%	51.0%	4,354
0.5	23.6%	22.8%	4,354
0.75	9.3%	9.8%	4,354
1	3.3%	4.0%	4,354
1.5	0.8%	0.6%	4,354

Meta Platforms · last quote 563.00

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.3%	78.2%	4,354
0.25	54.1%	51.0%	4,354
0.5	23.6%	22.8%	4,354
0.75	9.3%	9.8%	4,354
1	3.3%	4.0%	4,354
1.5	0.8%	0.6%	4,354

Tesla · last quote 351.86

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	80.9%	77.8%	1,152
0.25	54.0%	50.3%	1,152
0.5	22.5%	20.5%	1,152
0.75	7.5%	7.1%	1,152
1	3.3%	2.0%	1,152
1.5	0.5%	0.3%	1,152

AMD · last quote 478.32

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	80.9%	77.8%	1,152
0.25	54.0%	50.3%	1,152
0.5	22.5%	20.5%	1,152
0.75	7.5%	7.1%	1,152
1	3.3%	2.0%	1,152
1.5	0.5%	0.3%	1,152

Netflix · last quote 81.33

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	80.9%	77.8%	1,152
0.25	54.0%	50.3%	1,152
0.5	22.5%	20.5%	1,152
0.75	7.5%	7.1%	1,152
1	3.3%	2.0%	1,152
1.5	0.5%	0.3%	1,152

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked fx market.

Live touch/not-touched status isn't shown for FX: the data feed has no reliable 17:00 ET forex-day session open to anchor against, so we show probability only rather than guess.

Known gaps: XAU is not present in touch_surface_fx_v1 (scopes available: fx_majors, fx_cross, all_fx, cfd_ostatni) — not yet measured.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
EUR/USDlast 1.1673	↑66.0% ↓65.4% —66% —65% +0.6pp	↑29.9% ↓29.0% —30% —29% +0.9pp	↑8.0% ↓8.0% —8% —8% +0.0pp	↑2.8% ↓2.8% —3% —3% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.3% —1% —1% +0.1pp	↑0.4% ↓0.4% —0% —0% -0.0pp
GBP/USDlast 1.3633	↑66.0% ↓65.4% —66% —65% +0.6pp	↑29.9% ↓29.0% —30% —29% +0.9pp	↑8.0% ↓8.0% —8% —8% +0.0pp	↑2.8% ↓2.8% —3% —3% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.3% —1% —1% +0.1pp	↑0.4% ↓0.4% —0% —0% -0.0pp
USD/JPYlast 159.26	↑66.0% ↓65.4% —66% —65% +0.6pp	↑29.9% ↓29.0% —30% —29% +0.9pp	↑8.0% ↓8.0% —8% —8% +0.0pp	↑2.8% ↓2.8% —3% —3% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.3% —1% —1% +0.1pp	↑0.4% ↓0.4% —0% —0% -0.0pp
AUD/USDlast 0.7156	↑66.0% ↓65.4% —66% —65% +0.6pp	↑29.9% ↓29.0% —30% —29% +0.9pp	↑8.0% ↓8.0% —8% —8% +0.0pp	↑2.8% ↓2.8% —3% —3% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.3% —1% —1% +0.1pp	↑0.4% ↓0.4% —0% —0% -0.0pp
USD/CADlast 1.3841	↑66.0% ↓65.4% —66% —65% +0.6pp	↑29.9% ↓29.0% —30% —29% +0.9pp	↑8.0% ↓8.0% —8% —8% +0.0pp	↑2.8% ↓2.8% —3% —3% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.3% —1% —1% +0.1pp	↑0.4% ↓0.4% —0% —0% -0.0pp
USD/CHFlast 0.8027	↑66.0% ↓65.4% —66% —65% +0.6pp	↑29.9% ↓29.0% —30% —29% +0.9pp	↑8.0% ↓8.0% —8% —8% +0.0pp	↑2.8% ↓2.8% —3% —3% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.3% —1% —1% +0.1pp	↑0.4% ↓0.4% —0% —0% -0.0pp
NZD/USDlast 0.5969	↑66.0% ↓65.4% —66% —65% +0.6pp	↑29.9% ↓29.0% —30% —29% +0.9pp	↑8.0% ↓8.0% —8% —8% +0.0pp	↑2.8% ↓2.8% —3% —3% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.3% —1% —1% +0.1pp	↑0.4% ↓0.4% —0% —0% -0.0pp
Gold spot (XAU/USD)	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —

EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPY

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

EUR/USD · last quote 1.1673

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	66.0%	65.4%	8,523
0.25	29.9%	29.0%	8,523
0.5	8.0%	8.0%	8,523
0.75	2.8%	2.8%	8,523
1	1.4%	1.3%	8,523
1.5	0.4%	0.4%	8,523

GBP/USD · last quote 1.3633

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	66.0%	65.4%	8,523
0.25	29.9%	29.0%	8,523
0.5	8.0%	8.0%	8,523
0.75	2.8%	2.8%	8,523
1	1.4%	1.3%	8,523
1.5	0.4%	0.4%	8,523

USD/JPY · last quote 159.26

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	66.0%	65.4%	8,523
0.25	29.9%	29.0%	8,523
0.5	8.0%	8.0%	8,523
0.75	2.8%	2.8%	8,523
1	1.4%	1.3%	8,523
1.5	0.4%	0.4%	8,523

AUD/USD · last quote 0.7156

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	66.0%	65.4%	8,523
0.25	29.9%	29.0%	8,523
0.5	8.0%	8.0%	8,523
0.75	2.8%	2.8%	8,523
1	1.4%	1.3%	8,523
1.5	0.4%	0.4%	8,523

USD/CAD · last quote 1.3841

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	66.0%	65.4%	8,523
0.25	29.9%	29.0%	8,523
0.5	8.0%	8.0%	8,523
0.75	2.8%	2.8%	8,523
1	1.4%	1.3%	8,523
1.5	0.4%	0.4%	8,523

USD/CHF · last quote 0.8027

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	66.0%	65.4%	8,523
0.25	29.9%	29.0%	8,523
0.5	8.0%	8.0%	8,523
0.75	2.8%	2.8%	8,523
1	1.4%	1.3%	8,523
1.5	0.4%	0.4%	8,523

NZD/USD · last quote 0.5969

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	66.0%	65.4%	8,523
0.25	29.9%	29.0%	8,523
0.5	8.0%	8.0%	8,523
0.75	2.8%	2.8%	8,523
1	1.4%	1.3%	8,523
1.5	0.4%	0.4%	8,523

Gold spot (XAU/USD)

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.25	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.75	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
1	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
1.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked crypto market.

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at 00:00 UTC (today's day type: weekday) — the feed's session-range window may not start exactly at that instant, see methodology. Weekends trade a measurably different, thinner regime, so weekday and weekend use separate probability curves.

Known gaps: day_type=vse (pooled weekday+weekend) is not served — weekday and weekend are measurably different regimes, so the site must always pick the row matching today's UTC day type. Cells flagged rare in the source parquet (p<0.01 or p>0.99; 21.7% of all rows) are dropped entirely, not served — they render as 'not yet measured' the same as any other missing combo.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR
Bitcoinlast 79112.89	↑76.0% ↓76.2% ✓76% ✓76% -0.2pp	↑45.7% ↓46.3% ✓46% ✓46% -0.6pp	↑19.3% ↓20.6% ✓19% 21% -1.3pp	↑9.2% ↓10.0% ✓9% 10% -0.8pp
Ethereumlast 2468.59	↑76.0% ↓76.2% ✓76% ✓76% -0.2pp	↑45.7% ↓46.3% ✓46% ✓46% -0.6pp	↑19.3% ↓20.6% ✓19% 21% -1.3pp	↑9.2% ↓10.0% 9% 10% -0.8pp
Solanalast 97.74	↑72.7% ↓77.5% ✓73% ✓78% -4.8pp	↑44.1% ↓49.1% ✓44% ✓49% -5.0pp	↑19.7% ↓20.4% ✓20% ✓20% -0.7pp	↑8.9% ↓10.0% ✓9% 10% -1.0pp
Avalanchelast 7.4640	↑72.7% ↓77.5% ✓73% ✓78% -4.8pp	↑44.1% ↓49.1% ✓44% ✓49% -5.0pp	↑19.7% ↓20.4% ✓20% ✓20% -0.7pp	↑8.9% ↓10.0% 9% 10% -1.0pp
Chainlinklast 11.54	↑72.7% ↓77.5% ✓73% ✓78% -4.8pp	↑44.1% ↓49.1% ✓44% ✓49% -5.0pp	↑19.7% ↓20.4% ✓20% 20% -0.7pp	↑8.9% ↓10.0% 9% 10% -1.0pp
Dogecoinlast 0.0886	↑72.7% ↓77.5% ✓73% ✓78% -4.8pp	↑44.1% ↓49.1% ✓44% ✓49% -5.0pp	↑19.7% ↓20.4% ✓20% ✓20% -0.7pp	↑8.9% ↓10.0% 9% 10% -1.0pp

BitcoinEthereumSolana

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

Bitcoin · last quote 79112.89

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	76.0%	76.2%	1,698
0.25	45.7%	46.3%	1,698
0.5	19.3%	20.6%	1,698
0.75	9.2%	10.0%	1,698

Ethereum · last quote 2468.59

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	76.0%	76.2%	1,698
0.25	45.7%	46.3%	1,698
0.5	19.3%	20.6%	1,698
0.75	9.2%	10.0%	1,698

Solana · last quote 97.74

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	72.7%	77.5%	2,623
0.25	44.1%	49.1%	2,623
0.5	19.7%	20.4%	2,623
0.75	8.9%	10.0%	2,623

Avalanche · last quote 7.4640

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	72.7%	77.5%	2,623
0.25	44.1%	49.1%	2,623
0.5	19.7%	20.4%	2,623
0.75	8.9%	10.0%	2,623

Chainlink · last quote 11.54

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	72.7%	77.5%	2,623
0.25	44.1%	49.1%	2,623
0.5	19.7%	20.4%	2,623
0.75	8.9%	10.0%	2,623

Dogecoin · last quote 0.0886

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	72.7%	77.5%	2,623
0.25	44.1%	49.1%	2,623
0.5	19.7%	20.4%	2,623
0.75	8.9%	10.0%	2,623

How to read this map: each cell is P(price touches ±d ATR from the session anchor before that horizon ends), split into an up half and a down half. Live status compares that level against today's actual high/low from the data feed — a checkmark means it already happened today, a pulsing dot means the session is still running and it hasn't happened yet, an open circle means the session closed without it happening. Asymmetry is P(up) minus P(down) in percentage points — a directional imbalance in how often each side gets touched, not a trade signal.

Index futures, stock sector groups (ETFs / mega-caps / high-beta) and crypto groups (BTC & ETH / alt L1s) share one probability surface each — identical numbers within the same group are by construction, not a bug.