Daily Probability Map

SNAPSHOT 08:15 ETBETWEEN SESSIONS · NEW YORK NEXT

Touch probability for every tracked market, updated every 15 minutes. Hover a cell for detail, click a market's row to open its drawer.

Probability map, not a directional call. what this means →

Markets tracked

31 / 32

Levels resolved today

Still live

176

Last update

SNAPSHOT 08:15 ET

Futures Stocks FX Crypto

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked futures market.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET session open — the feed's available session-range window may not start at exactly that instant, see methodology.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
E-mini S&P 500last 7867.75	↑87.4% ↓85.9% 87% ✓86% +1.5pp	↑69.4% ↓67.4% 69% ✓67% +1.9pp	↑42.7% ↓43.0% 43% 43% -0.2pp	↑23.6% ↓27.0% 24% 27% -3.4pp	↑13.0% ↓16.4% 13% 16% -3.4pp	↑3.2% ↓6.1% 3% 6% -2.9pp
E-mini Nasdaq 100last 30782.75	↑87.4% ↓85.9% 87% ✓86% +1.5pp	↑69.4% ↓67.4% 69% ✓67% +1.9pp	↑42.7% ↓43.0% 43% ✓43% -0.2pp	↑23.6% ↓27.0% 24% 27% -3.4pp	↑13.0% ↓16.4% 13% 16% -3.4pp	↑3.2% ↓6.1% 3% 6% -2.9pp
E-mini Dowlast 52084.00	↑87.4% ↓85.9% ✓87% 86% +1.5pp	↑69.4% ↓67.4% ✓69% 67% +1.9pp	↑42.7% ↓43.0% 43% 43% -0.2pp	↑23.6% ↓27.0% 24% 27% -3.4pp	↑13.0% ↓16.4% 13% 16% -3.4pp	↑3.2% ↓6.1% 3% 6% -2.9pp
E-mini Russell 2000last 2804.30	↑87.4% ↓85.9% ✓87% ✓86% +1.5pp	↑69.4% ↓67.4% 69% 67% +1.9pp	↑42.7% ↓43.0% 43% 43% -0.2pp	↑23.6% ↓27.0% 24% 27% -3.4pp	↑13.0% ↓16.4% 13% 16% -3.4pp	↑3.2% ↓6.1% 3% 6% -2.9pp
Goldlast 4160.60	↑88.3% ↓87.5% ✓88% ✓87% +0.8pp	↑72.2% ↓71.3% 72% ✓71% +0.9pp	↑47.7% ↓47.9% 48% ✓48% -0.2pp	↑30.2% ↓30.8% 30% 31% -0.6pp	↑18.3% ↓19.5% 18% 20% -1.3pp	↑7.2% ↓7.6% 7% 8% -0.4pp
WTI Crudelast 95.91	↑87.2% ↓88.3% ✓87% ✓88% -1.1pp	↑69.4% ↓71.8% ✓69% ✓72% -2.5pp	↑44.7% ↓48.2% 45% 48% -3.5pp	↑27.2% ↓30.3% 27% 30% -3.1pp	↑15.7% ↓18.0% 16% 18% -2.4pp	↑4.5% ↓5.6% 4% 6% -1.1pp

E-mini S&P 500GoldWTI Crude

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

E-mini S&P 500 · last quote 7867.75

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	87.4%	85.9%	11,617
0.25	69.4%	67.4%	11,617
0.5	42.7%	43.0%	11,617
0.75	23.6%	27.0%	11,617
1	13.0%	16.4%	11,617
1.5	3.2%	6.1%	11,617

E-mini Nasdaq 100 · last quote 30782.75

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	87.4%	85.9%	11,617
0.25	69.4%	67.4%	11,617
0.5	42.7%	43.0%	11,617
0.75	23.6%	27.0%	11,617
1	13.0%	16.4%	11,617
1.5	3.2%	6.1%	11,617

E-mini Dow · last quote 52084.00

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	87.4%	85.9%	11,617
0.25	69.4%	67.4%	11,617
0.5	42.7%	43.0%	11,617
0.75	23.6%	27.0%	11,617
1	13.0%	16.4%	11,617
1.5	3.2%	6.1%	11,617

E-mini Russell 2000 · last quote 2804.30

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	87.4%	85.9%	11,617
0.25	69.4%	67.4%	11,617
0.5	42.7%	43.0%	11,617
0.75	23.6%	27.0%	11,617
1	13.0%	16.4%	11,617
1.5	3.2%	6.1%	11,617

Gold · last quote 4160.60

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	88.3%	87.5%	9,610
0.25	72.2%	71.3%	9,610
0.5	47.7%	47.9%	9,610
0.75	30.2%	30.8%	9,610
1	18.3%	19.5%	9,610
1.5	7.2%	7.6%	9,610

WTI Crude · last quote 95.91

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	87.2%	88.3%	9,447
0.25	69.4%	71.8%	9,447
0.5	44.7%	48.2%	9,447
0.75	27.2%	30.3%	9,447
1	15.7%	18.0%	9,447
1.5	4.5%	5.6%	9,447

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked stocks market.

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET RTH open, matching the feed's session window for exchange-listed equities.

Known gaps: No first-hit grid exists for stocks — brackets.json and width_bounds.json have no stock coverage; not yet measured.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)last 778.01	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ✓86% ✓85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% ✓67% ✓66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% 41% 42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% 22% 26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% 10% 14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)last 743.57	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ✓86% 85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% ✓67% 66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% ✓41% 42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% 22% 26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% 10% 14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)last 276.70	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ✓86% ✓85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% 67% ✓66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% 41% ✓42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% 22% ✓26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% 10% 14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp
Applelast 341.27	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% ✓67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% ✓40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Microsoftlast 543.45	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% 67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Nvidialast 228.52	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% ✓67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ✓24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Amazonlast 258.58	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% ✓67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% 42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Alphabet (GOOGL)last 353.78	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% ✓67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% 42% ✓40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Meta Platformslast 762.50	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% 87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% 67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ✓24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% ✓12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% ✓3% 3% -0.1pp
Teslalast 375.23	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ✓86% 88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% ✓67% 70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% 40% 41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% 23% 21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% 13% 11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp
AMDlast 605.53	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ✓86% ✓88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% ✓67% ✓70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% ✓40% 41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% ✓23% 21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% ✓13% 11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp
Netflixlast 70.46	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ✓86% ✓88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% ✓67% ✓70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% 40% 41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% 23% 21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% 13% 11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)AppleNvidia

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · last quote 778.01

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) · last quote 743.57

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) · last quote 276.70

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Apple · last quote 341.27

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Microsoft · last quote 543.45

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Nvidia · last quote 228.52

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Amazon · last quote 258.58

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Alphabet (GOOGL) · last quote 353.78

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Meta Platforms · last quote 762.50

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Tesla · last quote 375.23

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

AMD · last quote 605.53

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

Netflix · last quote 70.46

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked fx market.

Live touch/not-touched status isn't shown for FX: the data feed has no reliable 17:00 ET forex-day session open to anchor against, so we show probability only rather than guess.

Known gaps: XAU (gold) is not yet measured for FX touch levels.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
EUR/USDlast 1.1197	↑78.7% ↓78.3% —79% —78% +0.4pp	↑51.7% ↓52.0% —52% —52% -0.2pp	↑23.0% ↓23.4% —23% —23% -0.4pp	↑9.9% ↓10.5% —10% —10% -0.6pp	↑4.4% ↓4.6% —4% —5% -0.2pp	↑1.0% ↓1.1% —1% —1% -0.1pp
GBP/USDlast 1.3266	↑78.7% ↓78.3% —79% —78% +0.4pp	↑51.7% ↓52.0% —52% —52% -0.2pp	↑23.0% ↓23.4% —23% —23% -0.4pp	↑9.9% ↓10.5% —10% —10% -0.6pp	↑4.4% ↓4.6% —4% —5% -0.2pp	↑1.0% ↓1.1% —1% —1% -0.1pp
USD/JPYlast 158.43	↑78.7% ↓78.3% —79% —78% +0.4pp	↑51.7% ↓52.0% —52% —52% -0.2pp	↑23.0% ↓23.4% —23% —23% -0.4pp	↑9.9% ↓10.5% —10% —10% -0.6pp	↑4.4% ↓4.6% —4% —5% -0.2pp	↑1.0% ↓1.1% —1% —1% -0.1pp
AUD/USDlast 0.7010	↑78.7% ↓78.3% —79% —78% +0.4pp	↑51.7% ↓52.0% —52% —52% -0.2pp	↑23.0% ↓23.4% —23% —23% -0.4pp	↑9.9% ↓10.5% —10% —10% -0.6pp	↑4.4% ↓4.6% —4% —5% -0.2pp	↑1.0% ↓1.1% —1% —1% -0.1pp
USD/CADlast 1.4215	↑78.7% ↓78.3% —79% —78% +0.4pp	↑51.7% ↓52.0% —52% —52% -0.2pp	↑23.0% ↓23.4% —23% —23% -0.4pp	↑9.9% ↓10.5% —10% —10% -0.6pp	↑4.4% ↓4.6% —4% —5% -0.2pp	↑1.0% ↓1.1% —1% —1% -0.1pp
USD/CHFlast 0.8331	↑78.7% ↓78.3% —79% —78% +0.4pp	↑51.7% ↓52.0% —52% —52% -0.2pp	↑23.0% ↓23.4% —23% —23% -0.4pp	↑9.9% ↓10.5% —10% —10% -0.6pp	↑4.4% ↓4.6% —4% —5% -0.2pp	↑1.0% ↓1.1% —1% —1% -0.1pp
NZD/USDlast 0.5616	↑78.7% ↓78.3% —79% —78% +0.4pp	↑51.7% ↓52.0% —52% —52% -0.2pp	↑23.0% ↓23.4% —23% —23% -0.4pp	↑9.9% ↓10.5% —10% —10% -0.6pp	↑4.4% ↓4.6% —4% —5% -0.2pp	↑1.0% ↓1.1% —1% —1% -0.1pp
Gold spot (XAU/USD)	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —

EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPY

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

EUR/USD · last quote 1.1197

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	78.7%	78.3%	8,521
0.25	51.7%	52.0%	8,521
0.5	23.0%	23.4%	8,521
0.75	9.9%	10.5%	8,521
1	4.4%	4.6%	8,521
1.5	1.0%	1.1%	8,521

GBP/USD · last quote 1.3266

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	78.7%	78.3%	8,521
0.25	51.7%	52.0%	8,521
0.5	23.0%	23.4%	8,521
0.75	9.9%	10.5%	8,521
1	4.4%	4.6%	8,521
1.5	1.0%	1.1%	8,521

USD/JPY · last quote 158.43

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	78.7%	78.3%	8,521
0.25	51.7%	52.0%	8,521
0.5	23.0%	23.4%	8,521
0.75	9.9%	10.5%	8,521
1	4.4%	4.6%	8,521
1.5	1.0%	1.1%	8,521

AUD/USD · last quote 0.7010

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	78.7%	78.3%	8,521
0.25	51.7%	52.0%	8,521
0.5	23.0%	23.4%	8,521
0.75	9.9%	10.5%	8,521
1	4.4%	4.6%	8,521
1.5	1.0%	1.1%	8,521

USD/CAD · last quote 1.4215

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	78.7%	78.3%	8,521
0.25	51.7%	52.0%	8,521
0.5	23.0%	23.4%	8,521
0.75	9.9%	10.5%	8,521
1	4.4%	4.6%	8,521
1.5	1.0%	1.1%	8,521

USD/CHF · last quote 0.8331

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	78.7%	78.3%	8,521
0.25	51.7%	52.0%	8,521
0.5	23.0%	23.4%	8,521
0.75	9.9%	10.5%	8,521
1	4.4%	4.6%	8,521
1.5	1.0%	1.1%	8,521

NZD/USD · last quote 0.5616

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	78.7%	78.3%	8,521
0.25	51.7%	52.0%	8,521
0.5	23.0%	23.4%	8,521
0.75	9.9%	10.5%	8,521
1	4.4%	4.6%	8,521
1.5	1.0%	1.1%	8,521

Gold spot (XAU/USD)

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.25	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.75	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
1	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
1.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked crypto market.

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at 00:00 UTC (today's day type: weekday) — the feed's session-range window may not start exactly at that instant, see methodology. Weekends trade a measurably different, thinner regime, so weekday and weekend use separate probability curves.

Known gaps: day_type=vse (pooled weekday+weekend) is not served — weekday and weekend are measurably different regimes, so the site must always pick the row matching today's UTC day type. Cells flagged rare in the source parquet (p<0.01 or p>0.99; 21.7% of all rows) are dropped entirely, not served — they render as 'not yet measured' the same as any other missing combo.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR
Bitcoinlast 83429.99	↑83.1% ↓80.7% ✓83% 81% +2.4pp	↑56.0% ↓55.7% ✓56% 56% +0.3pp	↑26.1% ↓27.7% 26% 28% -1.6pp	↑12.9% ↓15.0% 13% 15% -2.2pp
Ethereumlast 2503.01	↑83.1% ↓80.7% ✓83% ✓81% +2.4pp	↑56.0% ↓55.7% ✓56% 56% +0.3pp	↑26.1% ↓27.7% 26% 28% -1.6pp	↑12.9% ↓15.0% 13% 15% -2.2pp
Solanalast 107.16	↑79.5% ↓82.7% ✓80% ✓83% -3.1pp	↑53.6% ↓59.1% ✓54% 59% -5.4pp	↑26.4% ↓27.7% 26% 28% -1.3pp	↑12.8% ↓13.8% 13% 14% -0.9pp
Avalanchelast 10.27	↑79.5% ↓82.7% ✓80% ✓83% -3.1pp	↑53.6% ↓59.1% 54% 59% -5.4pp	↑26.4% ↓27.7% 26% 28% -1.3pp	↑12.8% ↓13.8% 13% 14% -0.9pp
Chainlinklast 12.90	↑79.5% ↓82.7% ✓80% 83% -3.1pp	↑53.6% ↓59.1% ✓54% 59% -5.4pp	↑26.4% ↓27.7% 26% 28% -1.3pp	↑12.8% ↓13.8% 13% 14% -0.9pp
Dogecoinlast 0.0844	↑79.5% ↓82.7% ✓80% ✓83% -3.1pp	↑53.6% ↓59.1% ✓54% 59% -5.4pp	↑26.4% ↓27.7% 26% 28% -1.3pp	↑12.8% ↓13.8% 13% 14% -0.9pp

BitcoinEthereumSolana

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

Bitcoin · last quote 83429.99

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	80.7%	1,696
0.25	56.0%	55.7%	1,696
0.5	26.1%	27.7%	1,696
0.75	12.9%	15.0%	1,696

Ethereum · last quote 2503.01

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	80.7%	1,696
0.25	56.0%	55.7%	1,696
0.5	26.1%	27.7%	1,696
0.75	12.9%	15.0%	1,696

Solana · last quote 107.16

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	79.5%	82.7%	2,622
0.25	53.6%	59.1%	2,622
0.5	26.4%	27.7%	2,622
0.75	12.8%	13.8%	2,622

Avalanche · last quote 10.27

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	79.5%	82.7%	2,622
0.25	53.6%	59.1%	2,622
0.5	26.4%	27.7%	2,622
0.75	12.8%	13.8%	2,622

Chainlink · last quote 12.90

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	79.5%	82.7%	2,622
0.25	53.6%	59.1%	2,622
0.5	26.4%	27.7%	2,622
0.75	12.8%	13.8%	2,622

Dogecoin · last quote 0.0844

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	79.5%	82.7%	2,622
0.25	53.6%	59.1%	2,622
0.5	26.4%	27.7%	2,622
0.75	12.8%	13.8%	2,622

How to read this map: each cell is P(price touches ±d ATR from the session anchor before that horizon ends), split into an up half and a down half. Live status compares that level against today's actual high/low from the data feed — a checkmark means it already happened today, a pulsing dot means the session is still running and it hasn't happened yet, an open circle means the session closed without it happening. Asymmetry is P(up) minus P(down) in percentage points — a directional imbalance in how often each side gets touched, not a trade signal.

Index futures, stock sector groups (ETFs / mega-caps / high-beta) and crypto groups (BTC & ETH / alt L1s) share one probability surface each — identical numbers within the same group are by construction, not a bug.